The failed rally that ran out of steam at the Bollinger band top Thursday is a concern for bulls in that it failed to test the 2014 high and was followed up with a close back below the 21-DMA on Friday. The pair is now making headway below the 21-DMA as it heads back towards the key $0.9312-61 support region. Bears now need a close below the 100-DMA to end bullish hopes and target the $0.9189-0.9202 region with the 200-DMA at $0.9189.
RES 4: $0.9543 – Monthly high Nov 6 2013
RES 3: $0.9505 – 2014 high July 1
RES 2: $0.9474 – High July 24
RES 1: $0.9425 – Hourly resistance July 24
LPRICE: $0.9381
SUP 1: $0.9361 – 55-DMA
SUP 2: $0.9359 – Rising daily trend line
SUP 3: $0.9322 – Low June 18, 61.8% Fibo $0.9208-0.9505
SUP 4: $0.9316 – 100-DMA
NZD/USD is extending losses following the close below the rising daily channel base on Friday with immediate focus on the $0.8412-81 support region and the 200-DMA noted at $0.8453. Layers of resistance are noted in the $0.8520-99 region with bulls needing a close above $0.8599 to ease bearish pressure and above $0.8659 to shift focus back to the 21-DMA ($0.8711) and $0.8722 resistance just above.
RES 4: $0.8629 – 100-DMA
RES 3: $0.8599 – Hourly resistance July 24
RES 2: $0.8560 – High July 28
RES 1: $0.8520 – Hourly resistance July 29
LPRICE: $0.8496
SUP 1: $0.8481 – Low June 9
SUP 2: $0.8453 – 200-DMA
SUP 3: $0.8412 – Monthly Low June 4
SUP 4: $0.8343 – Monthly Low Mar 3
The move higher continues for aussie-kiwi with fresh 2014 and 7 month highs Tuesday confirming bullish pressure and shifting immediate focus to the NZ$1.1072-1.1226 region. Daily studies remain at O/B levels but bears need to see a close below NZ$1.0960 to confirm a break of layers of support that have developed on the hourlies and ease bullish pressure a little. Overall bears now need a close below the 200-DMA to shift focus back to July monthly lows.
RES 4: NZ$1.1226 – High Nov 29 2013
RES 3: NZ$1.1157 – Rising trend line projection
RES 2: NZ$1.1072 – High Dec 6 2013
RES 1: NZ$1.1048 – 2014 high July 29
LPRICE: NZ$1.1034
SUP 1: NZ$1.1015 – Hourly support July 29
SUP 2: NZ$1.0984 – Low July 29
SUP 3: NZ$1.0960 – Hourly support July 25
SUP 4: NZ$1.0872 – 200-DMA
Following Monday’s dip back to the 21-DMA the AUD/JPY spent Tuesday consolidating above the 21-DMA with immediate focus on the Y96.21-51 region while the 21-DMA supports. Bears now need a close below the 21-DMA to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and shift immediate focus back to the Y94.94-95.32 region where 55 & 100-DMAs are located with overall focus returning to the Y94.39 July monthly low.
RES 4: Y97.14 – Weekly Bollinger band top
RES 3: Y96.51 – 2014 high July 1
RES 2: Y96.30 – Bollinger band top
RES 1: Y96.18 – High July 24
LPRICE: Y95.80
SUP 1: Y95.52 – 21-DMA
SUP 2: Y95.32 – 55-DMA
SUP 3: Y95.06 – 100-DMA
SUP 4: Y94.60 – Ichimoku cloud base
Following fresh 2014 and 8 month lows for EUR/AUD last week the pair remains capped ahead of initial resistance. Bears remain firmly focused on the A$1.4051-1.4130 support region with the main concern being O/S daily studies. Initial resistance remains in the A$1.4326-57 region with bulls needing a close above A$1.4357 to ease bearish pressure. Overall a close above the 21-DMA remains needed to end bearish hopes and target A$1.4602.
RES 4: A$1.4421 – 21-DMA
RES 3: A$1.4385 – Previous hourly support now resistance
RES 2: A$1.4357 – High July 23
RES 1: A$1.4326 – High July 25
LPRICE: A$1.4285
SUP 1: A$1.4265 – Low July 25
SUP 2: A$1.4209 – 2014 Low July 24
SUP 3: A$1.4131 – Weekly Bollinger band base
SUP 4: A$1.4051 – Monthly Low Nov 7 2013
