The bearish trend change and rounded top in Yen have raised concern regarding our call for another marginal high in prices. Still the longer-term wave count implies an incomplete rally and the sell-off from 105.44 is not the clear impulse you would expect from a new decline. Prices have held…and rallied from critical support so far but we are awaiting a close back through 102.86 to further promote strength. Key resistance to watch is the old pivot low at 102.86 with minor resistance above there at 103.00/60. In proportion to wave-(2), wave-(4) took 2.618 times as long to form; holding 101.77 is now critical not only in price but in terms of time as well. Conviction: Medium Trade: Flat. Correction unfolding, look to add in due time at the expected wave-(4) low. Levels: Support – 102.54, 102.28, 101.77 Resistance – 102.86, 103, 103.60
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Nomura