While the Euro has started out a touch weaker, German Ifo Business survey readings should provide theMarch Euro with a layer of fundamental support. With the Press touting the Ifo as a signal of a better 2014environment, US data later this morning expected to come in soft, the March Euro might be able to build aconsolidation well above last week’s gap up move. With the sharp gap up move, the March Euro managed to leapover the 100 day moving average but it has not been able to climb above a quasi resistance zone of 1.3699.Pushed into the market we would buy minor dips in the Euro as emerging market angst appears to be settlingdown and the Euro looks to garner a temporary macroeconomic edge. The Commitments of Traders Futures andOptions report as of January 21st for Euro showed Non-Commercial traders were net short 4,433 contracts, anincrease of 11,686 contracts which represents a change from a net long to net short position. The Commercialtraders were net long 36,769 contracts, an increase of 23,642 contracts. The Non-reportable traders were netshort 32,336 contracts, an increase of 11,955 contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined tradersheld a net short position of 36,769 contracts. This represents an increase of 23,641 contracts in the net shortposition held by these traders.
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are trending higher from mid-range, which should support a movehigher if resistance levels are penetrated. A positive signal for trend short-term was given on a close over the 9-bar moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative. The close overthe pivot swing is a somewhat positive setup. The next upside target is 137.6700. The next area of resistance isaround 137.1600 and 137.6700, while 1st support hits today at 136.3800 and below there at 136.1100.