Monthly Archives: May 2012
UBS Morning Adviser Europe
Decisions Deferred Wednesday night’s EU Summit produced no decisions on any substantive issues, as widely expected. The concept of Eurozone bonds was discussed but European Council President Van Rompuy revealed that no one called for their immediate introduction.
GBP/USD Analysis
Closed in NY at $1.5690, after correcting off late lows of $1.5675 to $1.5710. Trade through Asia saw rate consolidate Wednesday’s losses, with rate restricted to a tight $1.5675/1.5700 range , coming under fresh downside pressure into Europe as it extends lows to $1.5668 and currently holding heavy.
EUR/USD Analysis
Closed in NY at $1.2585 after getting pressed to session lows of $1.2545 as market moved into deeper risk off mode on Greek concerns. Rate had managed to recover off lows on late rumours that Germany’s Merkel was backing a bank deposit insurance scheme to $1.2601 but this talk was not confirmed after the EU […]
Crude Oil Analysis
July Nymex WTI prices are trading higher Thursday after closing the previous session below $90 a barrel for the first time in seven months. Prices had plunged as low as $89.29 a barrel last night before some technical buying and a rally on Wall Street saw prices recover to close the session 2.1% lower at […]
Asia Today: Soft China flash PMI data, but risk currencies steady
Currency markets quickly adopted a negative view on the outcome of yesterday’s EU summit and sent the EUR down to 2-year lows versus the US dollar. It appears the “new” plan is to continue the already-agreed 2020 growth plan and focus on investment, trade and implementing single market acts.
UBS Morning Adviser Asia
Euro Slump Fears of a disorderly Greek exit pushed EURUSD below 1.2600 even before the ‘informal’ EU Summit kicked off, challenging those euro bulls who had been assuming that ‘all the bad news is priced in’ and serving as a reminder of the continued scope for disappointment.
UBS Morning Adviser America
DXY Bid Ahead Of Summit The dollar pushed higher overnight, with EURUSD breaking through 1.2650, as expectations fell ahead of today’s ‘informal’ EU summit. In the Asian session, a bout of euro selling took place after a newswire headline sensationally claimed that “preparations for a Greece euro exit are being considered” – even citing former […]
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: The path to eurobonds
EUR USD (1.2670) Germany’s ability to sell a zero coupon bond is as much a product of its fiscal strength as it is of the external crisis. It is not surprising therefore that core countries are still opposing eurobonds on the grounds that they should be preceded by rules for stricter fiscal governance or include […]
Daily FX Technical Strategy: Shrinking growth expectations
Yesterday Spanish 10y yields fell, suggesting a lessening in immediate eurozone tension, but it would appear that elsewhere European fears, and more specifically their potential impact on global growth, rose. Commodity and Emerging Market currencies were hit hard and point to further material weakness into the summer months. Sterling also regained some of its lustre […]
USD/JPY Analysis
USD/JPY moved higher in early Asian trade, marking highs at Y80.08 before fresh selling out of Japan emerged to lock in the higher levels. Rate eased off to Y79.90/80. The move lower was given added weight as the BOJ disappointed and kept rates unchanged (speculation had been for further easing) which took rate down to […]
Bonds Analysis
German government bonds are opening higher Wednesday, taking cue from late flight-to-quality gains in USTs towards the Chicago close and reduced expectations of any positive outcome from the EU Leaders Summit later today.
FX Market Technical Research
EUR/USD is consolidating just above the 1.2624 January low. The market has seen a very shallow rebound so far, following its key day reversal charted on Friday and continues to weigh on the downside.