Monthly Archives: May 2012
AUD/USD Analysis
AUD/USD opened the Asian session around $0.9762, after picking up from lows of around $0.9717 amid another late move higher in the last hour on Wall Street. With the absence of any data, prices have been mainly influenced by Asian stock prices.
UBS Morning Adviser Asia
Euro Remains Heavy The sudden EURCHF spike provided a distraction from all the post-Summit talk from various European officials, fostering market speculation of SNB action and the imposition of fees on sight deposits to defend the floor. The effect quickly wore off, as there did not appear to be anything substantive behind the move.
UBS Morning Adviser America
Further Soft EU Data FX markets were fairly volatile in the European session. A series of soft growth indicators out of the Eurozone sparked a wave of selling in risk assets with EURUSD pushing towards 1.2500. However, significant short-covering and a turnaround in European equity and fixed income markets saw FX largely reverse the moves.
GBP Analysis
Opened early Europe at $1.5682, stg0.8017, GBP closed in NY at $1.5690, after correcting off late lows of $1.5675 to $1.5710 as rate tracked EUR/USD moves. Trade through Asia saw rate consolidate Wednesday’s losses, trade restricted to a tight $1.5675/1.5700 range, before coming under fresh downside pressure into Europe as it extended lows to $1.5668.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Opinions on eurobonds need to be known
EUR USD (1.2575) The euro was roiled yesterday on unconfirmed reports that eurozone governments are preparing contingency plans for an exit of a country from the bloc. It would be puzzling if officials thought it necessary to make it explicit given the obvious risks.
Daily FX Technical Strategy: Increasing despondency
As the eurozone problems rumble on, investor despondency appears to be growing. Yesterday, EUR/USD fell to a new 2012 low; further weakness beyond 1.25 over the rest of May would pave the way for a run at 1.19 later in the year. This is having an extreme impact on commodity prices with the broad based […]
EUR Analysis
Opened early Europe at $1.2572, EUR/USD closed in NY at $1.2585 after getting pressed to session lows of $1.2545 as market moved into deeper risk off mode on Greek concerns. Rate had managed to recover on late rumours that Germany’s Merkel was backing a bank deposit insurance scheme, rising to $1.2601, but this talk was […]
JPY Analysis
Opened in early Europe at Y79.50 and Y99.96, opened in Asia around Y79.50 and ground to Y79.41 as traders reported a flat start to the session with light volumes. Importer demand lifted the rate to Y79.57 but ran into large cross yen sales, paring early gains.
Currency Weekly: Yen: the only true safe haven
The latest bout of ‘risk-off has seen the yen rally as the safe haven currency of choice and the mood is likely to continue at least until the 2nd Greek election. Will the yen continue to prove to be the safest haven over this period?
Bonds Analysis
German government bonds opened lower Thurs on profit-taking following strong risk-aversion bid on increased speculation of a Greek euro exit. A strong flight-to-quality bid was seen yesterday following story that the Eurogroup Working Group (EWG) has advised eurozone members to prepare individual contingency plans for a possible Greece exit, sent German yields to fresh record […]
FX Market Technical Research
EUR/USD has charted a minor new low for the year, but before we jump whole heartedly on the bear wagon we would highlight the 1.2530 78.6% retracement of the move from 2010 to 2011. We will need to see a close below here to confirm the next leg lower is underway.
Technical Analysis
Not so good for the euro, commodities (CRB & oil SHARPLY lower) & commodity Fxers… EURUSD may look stretched again, but is still offered and fresh lows can’t be excluded (after breaking a medium-term ref at 1.2588)… Next area of interest in the mid-1.24s…