Monthly Archives: May 2012
Daily FX Technical Strategy: Fear fatigue
Memorial Day in the US should keep trading subdued across markets today, but against this backdrop the outlook for commodity related currencies appears to be improving. USD/BRL, which was at the forefront of the recent risk rout, encountered profit taking last week; the AUD has also bounced and against the EUR appears poised to rally […]
FX Market Technical Research
EUR/USD sold off all week and closed below the 1.2530 Fibonacci retracement (just). The new low has not been confirmed by the daily RSI however and this suggests caution here and some near term consolidation.
Technical Analysis: Wave Principle Letter (Americas): The big sell-out
Financial history is littered with examples where prominent corporate deals mark significant turning points. And the Information Technology sector seems to have all the technical analysis components necessary for a lasting downturn, in tune with American stock markets in general. The US Dollar is finally starting to lift off from its bottoming cycle, bond yields […]
GBP/USD Analysis
Closed in NY Friday at $1.5660, as rate recovered off traded lows of $1.5630. Rate was marked higher into early Asia on weekend press reports which prompted a move back into risk.
EUR/USD Analysis
Rate closed in NY Friday at $1.2516, having seen lows in this session of $1.2495 before bouncing back after taking out option barrier interest at $1.2500. Rate opened in Asia at $1.2544, leaving a decent gap as it was marked higher following weekend press reports showing Greek pro-bailout party ND overtaking SYRIZA.
UBS Morning Adviser Europe
Euro Squeezes Higher Investors took heart from a pair of news reports, allowing both the euro and the Australian dollar to squeeze 80 pips higher overnight. First, five weekend opinion polls in Greece showed the pro-bailout New Democracy party has nudged ahead of the anti-bailout SYRIZA.
Crude Oil Analysis
July Nymex WTI prices have advanced Monday in tandem with a risk rally seen across Asia for much of the session. Signs voters in Greece may back austerity measures required for a European Union (EU) bailout has seen risk assets subject to some short covering in Asia, with July WTI rallying to currently trade $91.74 […]
Technical Analysis
€ reaction underway? AUD rebounds. NOK/SEK bids?… EUR/USD Fibo cluster still supportive… EUR/AUD Time to resell the cross!?… EUR/JPY Possible bull divergence… EUR/SEK Key support to be tested… USD/SEK Most likely a bull triangle… EUR/NOK Back at the floor… NOK/SEK Ending downside correction.
AUD/USD Analysis
AUD/USD has advanced in Asian trade Monday, as a risk short-covering rally across Asia has seen the rate outperform its peers. AUD opened the session around $0.9770 and has rallied to $0.9863 after weekend opinion polls in Greece showed pro-bailout party New Democracy gained maximum votes.
A firmer tone for the EUR (and risk) at the start of a new week
The EUR has started this week with a mild rush higher as weekend Greek opinion polls suggested that the pro-bailout New Democracy Party in Greece is making positive headway against Syriza and is now a few percentage points ahead.
UBS Morning Adviser Asia
Sentiment Still Vulnerable Nervous trading seems set to continue, with the drop in EURUSD below the 1.25 level on Friday highlighting the continued vulnerability of the euro amid the continued absence of any concrete policy initiatives.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook : Swiss intervention is a viscous circle
EUR USD (1.2525) A mid-session upward spike in the EUR/CHF rate yesterday brought traders quickly to the conclusion that the SNB was reasserting its determination to cap the strength of its domestic currency.