Monthly Archives: May 2012
EUR Analysis
Opened early Europe at $1.2468, EUR/USD closed in NY Tuesday at $1.2503, after seeing pressured lows in this session to $1.2461 after market reacted to a further downgrading of Spain by Egan Jones. Rate came under renewed pressure into Asia which extended the rate’s corrective pullback from the late NY recovery high of $1.2510 to […]
Daily FX Technical Strategy: EUR suffers from US antipathy
US investors returned from their long weekend and resumed trading as they had left off the week before: selling the euro and buying the dollar. Eurozone troubles remain a clear concern and with the euro sliding to a new 2012 low for the year today against the USD, CAD and TRY, near-term risks are for […]
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Eurozone is not the only risk to the UK economy
EUR USD (1.2465) Spanish bond yields are again hovering near the seven percent levels which make it difficult for the government to plan any sustainable borrowing. The Spanish plan to recapitalise Bankia through an equity-bond swap also becomes more expensive and the idea has found little resonance with the ECB.
FX Market Technical Research
EUR/USD has continued to slide and has sold off to the 1.2457 March 2009 low. Despite the fact that the RSI has not confirmed the new low, despite the 13 TD combo count and the 5th of 5th wave count, the market continues to weigh on the downside.
Technical Analysis
The dollar and the yen continue to perform in tandem. The rest (EUR, GBP, Scandies, EMs & Com’s) are paying the price. EURUSD is testing a medium-term 1.2460/50 extension ref while GBPUSD is knocking on a key 1.5603 ref – under which the yearly low would become exposed…
GBP/USD Analysis
Closed in NY at $1.5632, as rate recovered off late European lows of $1.5608. Rate managed to extend the recovery to $1.5637 into early Asia before turning lower again. Move down tracked EUR/USD slippage, which in turn was seen as a reaction to the AUD sell off following release of weak Australian retail sales data.
Gold Analysis
Spot gold prices are trading lower Wednesday, extending their losses from the previous session. Prices continue to move in tandem with a weaker euro and the precious metal continues to be shunned by investors as a choice of haven, with U.S. Treasuries and German bonds continuing to attract the safe haven cash flows.
EUR/USD Analysis
Closed in NY Tuesday at $1.2503, after seeing pressured lows in this session of $1.2461 after market reacted to a further downgrading of Spain by Egan Jones (or at least that was attributed as the trigger).
UBS Morning Adviser Europe
Spain Takes Centre-Stage Price action overnight was dominated by weaker-than-expected Australian retail sales which pushed AUDUSD back below 0.98. The miss also tripped up the euro, sending EURUSD down to a new 2-year low of 1.2458.
Crude Oil Analysis
July Nymex WTI crude prices are trading in negative territory Wednesday, extending their losses from the previous session, pressured by risk aversion. Prices had rallied to levels of around $92.17 a barrel Tuesday amid increasing optimism that Greece could remain in the eurozone.
AUD/USD Analysis
AUD/USD opened in Asia around $0.9847 and has been observed in a range of $0.9775/$0.9856 so far. The rate ground off early to levels of around $0.9811 pressured by risk aversion and evaporating hopes for a Chinese stimulus package.
Asia today: AUD weakens after soft headline retail sales numbers
AUDUSD traded on the south side of 0.98 following a weak headline April Oz retail sales number that suggested the Ozzie consumer is becoming more cautious in light of the uncertain global situation.