Monthly Archives: May 2012
Asian Trading Today: EUR clings onto higher levels; JPY selling
Asia found the EUR back higher at the open his morning after a few heart-stopping moments for newly-found bullish sentiment yesterday. Ranges were tight again in a session devoid of data inputs with flows dictating near-term direction.
UBS Morning Adviser Asia
Maybe Wednesday The rather muted EURUSD reaction to French President Hollande’s attempt to put common-issuance Eurozone bonds back on the table and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao’s reported call for a greater focus on growth suggests markets are adopting a ‘seeing is believing’ stance and will only react to specific policy initiatives or significantly better data.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: The eurozone to mull more transfers
EUR USD (1.2790) The European banking system is posing challenges which make the burden of any country exiting the eurozone even more troublesome. The bad banks loans in Spain have increased to €148 billion, making it urgent for the politicians to shape a concrete policy response.
UBS Morning Adviser America
Investors Torn FX markets traded sideways on Monday morning, with investors caught between adding cautious short-term risk positions and using the better levels to add to their structural short positions. Equity markets ground higher and the dollar was slightly softer versus risk assets.
GBP Analysis
Opened early Europe at $1.5833, stg0.8078, GBP closed in NY Friday at $1.5818, after easing from a late recovery to $1.5838. The corrective pullback continued into early Asia, the move down tracking EUR/USD, with rate touching a low at $1.5795 before recovering.
EUR Analysis
Opened early Europe at $1.2790, EUR/USD closed in NY Friday at $1.2782, off late extended recovery highs of $1.2795. The corrective pullback continued into early Asia, the rate pressed to a session low of $1.2749 before meeting US name demand.
JPY Analysis
Opened in early Europe at Y79.21 and Y101.33, opened in Asia at Y79.13 with dealers reporting of light volumes to start the working week. Dollar ground higher on investor demand as risk sentiment improved but the pair range traded to close the session around Y79.23.
Daily FX Technical Strategy: A chance to reload
Key Day Reversals in the USD Index, EUR/USD and USD/CHF on Friday imply profit taking after the recent USD rally allowing momentum to unwind from extreme levels. The absence of evidence of divergence implies a corrective move fuelled by profit taking, which isn’t supported by CFTC stats but was a theme from our client base […]
FX CFTC: USD long reaching a new high on bearish EURUSD sentiment
The negative sentiment towards the EURUSD among hedge funds and other large investors reached an all time high last week. The recent data from the CFTC covering the week ending May 15 saw them selling a net 29.9k contracts of EUR futures representing a value of USD 4.8 billion.
Speculative Positions
Largest net short speculative EUR position ever! SEB Risk appetite index (RAI) Risk appetite continued to fall and is now slightly lower than at the start of 2012. Summary of the speculative accounts in the Commitment of Traders report for the period 2 – 8 May: Most extreme positioning: Net short EURLargest change: Increase in […]
FX Market Technical Research
EUR/USD has charted a key day reversal just ahead of the the 1.2624 January low. The rally has already met the 23.6% retracement at 1.2793, looking for this to extend to 1.2887 then 1.2963, there is scope for 1.3038 (61.8% retracement+ early February and early April lows ) but we would expect the market to […]
GBP/USD Analysis
Closed in NY Friday at $1.5818, after easing back from a late recovery to $1.5838. The corrective pullback continued into early Asia, the move down tracking EUR/USD moves, with rate touching a low at $1.5795 before recovering.