Monthly Archives: May 2012
UBS Morning Adviser Asia
USDJPY Drifts Lower Generally softer than expected US data served as a reminder that not all the risks are confined to Europe: the May ADP private payrolls print came in at 133k; initial claims rose 10k to 383k; and the Chicago PMI fell to 52.7.
UBS Morning Adviser America
Danthine Stirs EURCHF EURCHF briefly returned to the spotlight after the SNB’s Danthine suggested that negative rates up to 50bp may not be harmful, referencing the policy of the Riksbank in 2009. His rhetoric remained firm otherwise and said that the SNB will continue to enforce the CHF cap with utmost determination.
FX Ringside
Norway: Surprisingly low FX purchases in June Today Norges Bank announced FX purchases for June. To our surprise the central bank chose to keep FX purchases flat at (selling) NOK 350m/day. Since the revised government budget was presented on May 10th the oil price has fallen some 5%.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Austerity still has precedence
EUR USD (1.2375) High Spanish borrowing costs, diving stock markets and concerns about the banking industry again saw investors buying safe-haven assets yesterday. Perhaps that’s why EC’s proposal of a joint bank deposit guarantee scheme, a eurozone wide financial supervision body, and a direct recapitalisation of the banks by the ESM, resonated in the markets.
GBP Analysis
Opened early Europe at $1.5478, stg0.8002, GBP closed in NY at $1.5482 after rate was pressured to session lows of $1.5475. Rate tracked early downside pressure on EUR/USD, led by early AUD sales, which took rate to extended lows of $1.5463 before recovering.
Bonds Analysis
German government bonds traded lower into the NY session Thursday on profit-taking following recent strong FTQ gains. However, prices are off their worst levels after comments from EU Commission saying direct bank recapitalisations are not possible by the ESM.
Gold Analysis
Spot gold prices are consolidating around unchanged levels Thursday with prices a little reluctant to push on from yesterday’s strong advance observed during the U.S. session. Prices held at the Asian low of $1558.75 and began to turn higher on the European cash equity opening as stocks extended modestly from their opening gains and the […]
EUR Analysis
Opened early Europe at $1.2387, EUR/USD closed in NY at $1.23668, after rate was pressed to lows of $1.2361. Rate came under renewed downside pressure in early trade, the posting an extended low of $1.2358 as it took an early lead from the sell off in AUD (Tr.Sec.Martin comment on the Australian deficit), but demand […]
JPY Analysis
Opened in early Europe at Y78.76 and Y97.64, Opened in Asia around Y79.10 at the top of the range and headed lower on further deleveraging, a weak start to Asian equities added weight to Y78.90. USD pressed lower on FinMin Azumi comments warning that FX and stock markets moves did not reflect fundamentals, extending losses […]
FX Market Technical Research
EUR/USD has now dropped right through the 1.2457 March 2009 low and is on is way to the 1.2329/06 support zone. This consists of the 2008 trough and the 2001-12 uptrend line. Medium term the 200 month moving average at 1.2066 and the psychological 1.2000 mark remain in sight.
Technical Analysis
Broadbased (not only Eur weakness) dollar and jpy buying seen yesterday. Bond yields dropping to record lows, slumping commodities and weak equities. EURUSD now knockin on the door to a broad based support area (2005-2010 lows), EURJPY to challenge its yearly low, 97.04,
GBP/USD Analysis
Closed in NY at $1.5482, after rate was pressured to session lows of $1.5475. Rate tracked early downside pressure on EUR/USD, led by early Aussie sales, which took rate to extended lows of $1.5463 before recovering.