Monthly Archives: April 2012
EUR/USD Analysis
Closed in NY at $1.3156. Trade through Asia was initially contained within a very tight range of $1.3147/58, dipping down to mark session lows at $1.3145 as rate reacted to Aussie’s fall following the weak release of Australian inflation data, before recovering back, touching overnight highs at $1.31602 ahead of the European open.
UBS Morning Adviser Europe
AUD Buckles After Soft CPI The Australian dollar suffered after Australia’s Q1 CPI inflation report came in much weaker than expected. Headline inflation fell sharply to +1.6% y/y (cons. 2.2%, prev. 3.1%). Market expectations had already been lowered by yesterday’s PPI report, but the scale of the miss was still surprising, and AUD promptly dropped […]
European FX Daily – AUD hurt by weak Australia CPI
– AUD down 0.6%, Asian stocks down 0.1-1.1% – Weak Australia CPI supports RBA easing – Italian bond auction in focus – Hungary MC to keep rates on hold at 7%
AUD/USD Analysis
Opened in Asia at $1.0319 and after edging up to around $1.0325 came under pressure on cross sales out of Tokyo in the AUD/JPY. The move was then accelerated by the release of very poor CPI data which rose by just +0.1% in Q1 against expectations of a rise of 05-0.8%.
USD/JPY Analysis
Opened in Asia at Y81.18 after lows in NY of Y80.97 and after edging to Y81.19 in early trade this morning, came under pressure from heavy cross sales in the EUR and AUD, as well as some sovereign supply.
UBS Morning Adviser Asia
Risk Woes Remain Risk appetite has started the week on a negative note as politics across the Eurozone begin to cloud the adjustment process. Firstly, the IMF did manage to announce a ‘firepower’ boost of over $430bn but the contingency nature of many of the countries’ contributions means that actual deployment when called upon remains […]
EUR Analysis
Euro had turned defensive at the start of the week as French and Dutch political concerns added to data weakness to fuel a strong risk-off tone to markets, global stocks down hard and US stocks tracking along.
JPY Analysis
Yen had enjoyed lift overnight on safe-haven considerations at the same time that euro had turned defensive, the dollar pair flushing layered stops before finding a base at Y80.97 ahead of the US session.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: The IMF money is conditional
EUR USD (1.3145) The IMF has received an extra $430 billion in resources after a lengthy bout of lobbying. A brief look at the news reports on the issue leaves one with an impression that should the eurozone deteriorate and policymakers actually delve into IMF funds it would not be without hefty discussions about the […]
UBS Morning Adviser America
Political And Economic Risks In Europe The euro came under modest selling pressure in the European session, through a combination of heightened political risk and weak economic data. The flash PMIs in the Eurozone were generally soft. The composite indicator came in at 46.0 vs consensus of 48.0 in April, the lowest since June 2009.
USTB Analysis
US Treasuries open NY higher, 10Y yield is 1.924%, vs. 1.97% 3pm last Fri, amid European stocks weakness, higher Bunds. IN TOKYO, Treasuries saw gains amid safe-haven buying as core EGBS boosted by weakness in EGB peripheral debt. Asian buy-and-hold accounts bought US 10-year notes.
Bond Analysis
German government bonds are trading higher Monday with the benchmark 10-year Bund yield hitting fresh record low at 1.666% after weak eurozone PMI data and flight-to-quality buying amid weak stocks and political uncertainty in France and the Netherlands.