Monthly Archives: April 2012
FX Daily Strategist: Europe
BoJ fails to push USDJPY higher This morning the BoJ announced an expansion of their asset purchasing by JPY 10tr, while extending the maturity of the JGB’s that it will purchases to 3 years from 2 years, but reduced the purchases of fixed-rate market operations by JPY 5yr.
Crude Oil Analysis
June Nymex crude oil prices are trading $103.95 Friday, down 60 cents on the session. Oil fell from its highest level posted in nearly four weeks after a Standard & Poor’s decision to cut Spain’s credit rating renewed fears over the status of Europe’s faltering economy and, in turn, curb fuel demand.
GBP/USD Analysis
Closed in NY at $1.6179, the rate having retained an underlying buoyant tone through Thursday’s session, holding just off extended highs at $1.6208, with pullbacks in this session contained by $1.6167.
EUR/USD Analysis
Closed in NY at $1.3217, the rate correcting away from a late recovery high of $1.3240, with news of S&P’s downgrading of Spain by two notches to BBB+ hitting the markets at 1700EDT dropping the rate down to opening Asian session lows of $1.31766 in very thin trading conditions.
UBS Morning Adviser Europe
BoJ Eases Boldly The Bank of Japan surprised by the market by easing far more than consensus expectations. It delivered incremental easing on several fronts. First, the portion of the asset purchase program reserved for actual asset purchases was increased by JPY 10 trn, and virtually all of this will be dedicated to JGB purchases.
Technical Analysis
A softer €, stronger JPY, weaker NOK & MXN… EUR/USD So far kept within the band… NZD/JPY Inversed pressure cooker… EUR/GBP New lows underway… EUR/SEK Still a mid body buy… USD/SEK Finally a sign of buyers… EUR/NOK Finally some action!… NOK/SEK Volatile.
UBS Morning Adviser Asia
S&P Downgrades Spain Late during the US session, S&P downgraded Spain by two notches from A to BBB+, outlook negative. The agency warned that the country’s ‘budget trajectory will likely deteriorate’ and more national support may be needed for the banking sector.
UBS Morning Adviser America
USDJPY Under Pressure The mixed messages from yesterday’s FOMC meeting were greeted with suitably cautious trading in the European session. The dollar reversed some of its overnight losses, though some USDJPY bulls appear to be taking back their long positions ahead of tomorrow BoJ meeting, with the pair trading heavy.
EUR Analysis
Opened early Europe at $1.3224, EUR/USD closed in NY at $1.3218 after rate had bounced from session lows of $1.3173 to $1.3234 as market reacted to FOMC statement (viewed hawkish), then Fed Bernanke’s press conference (viewed dovish).
JPY Analysis
Opened in early Europe at Y81.16 and Y107.34, USD/JPY opened in Asia at Y81.34 and lifted to Y81.42 but the rate stalled with exporter supply capping moves. USD then slipped to Y81.30 and extended losses to Y81.11 with crosses leading the charge lower.
GBP Analysis
Opened early Europe at $1.6168 stg0.8179, GBP closed in NY at $1.6167, after rate had bounced back from post GDP release lows of $1.6082 to $1.6183 as it took full advantage of the dollar sell off as market reacted to dovish comments from Ben Bernanke (seen leaving door ajar to possible QE3) in his post […]
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: The growth gap gets a voice
EUR USD (1.3225) French presidential candidate Hollande’s suggestions for boosting growth include the issue of infrastructurerelated eurobonds, the mobilisation of existing structural funds and a financial transaction tax.