Monthly Archives: March 2012
FX Daily Strategist: Europe
FX Facts Fit The Figures Thursday was something of a rarity in FX markets in that there was no need for journalistic licence in fitting facts to figures. Moves in most of the G10 currencies could credibly be attributed to idiosyncratic economic news.
GBP/USD Analysis
Closed in NY at $1.5816, the rate having recovered off post UK retail sales data lows of $1.5770 to make a brief show above resistance at $1.5820 ($1.5822 NY high). Rate extended recovery to $1.5827, settling between $1.5810/27 through most of the overnight session before extending the base to $1.5807 ahead of Europe ($1.5806 trendline […]
EUR/USD Analysis
Closed in NY at 1.3202, after recovering off session lows of $1.31334, the recovery continuing into Asia as demand for EUR/JPY influenced the rate to an extended high of $1.32134 before settling between $1.3190/1.3210 for the balance of an otherwise subdued session. Rate trades around $1.3195 in early European dealing.
Gold Analysis
Spot gold prices took a sharp dive lower yesterday following broad based risk aversion led by weak PMI data from China and Europe. The commodity sector and equities were all hit hard as fears of weaker growth across Asia and Europe ended the recent rallys.
Crude Oil Analysis
Nymex May WTI crude prices are holding steady around $105.50 in Asia this morning having falling back yesterday to lows of $104.50 in a risk -off market led by weaker PMI data from China and then Europe. The commodity sector pared back recent gains as did equities which prompted the sharp falls from early Asian […]
USD/JPY Analysis
Opened in Asia at Y82.58 having suffered a sharp fall from Y83.47 to Y82.33 yesterday as the dollar wilted under the strain of some heavy cross sales following weak PMI data from China and Europe. weak short positions were squeezed out this morning in Tokyo as fixing demand led a recovery from early lows of […]
AUD/USD Analysis
Opened in Asia this morning at $1.0389 having dropped to lows of $1.0336 in NY yesterday as AUD reacted the most to the risk-off sentiment generated from poor PMI data starting with China and compounded by similar weak readings from the EU states.
UBS Morning Adviser Asia
Risk Retreat Continues Heightened concerns about slower global growth have sustained the risk retreat, manifest in weaker equities, lower UST yields, softer commodities, and a firmer yen. In the wake of the data disappointments over the past 24 hours – stretching from the Q4 GDP print in New Zealand (0.3% q/q) to the March flash […]
UBS Morning Adviser America
PMIs Hit Risk Hard Risk was hit repeatedly through overnight sessions as successively weak PMI numbers globally have now again led to investors questioning whether the early 2012 bounce in growth was simply not sustainable. Chinese and German PMI figures both showed significant contraction in their key sectors, while Japanese trade numbers also suggested global […]
GBP Analysis
Cable closed in NY at $1.5863, off session lows of $1.5817, as well as above its 200-dma (Wednesday $1.5857, today $1.5856). The recovery continued into Asia, the rate pushing to a session high of $1.5885 before faltering then dropping back as markets reacted to the release of weaker than expected HSBC China PMI data, which […]
EUR Analysis
EUR/USD closed in NY at $1.3210, having been pressed to lows in this session of $1.3178 from earlier highs in Europe of $1.3286. Rate edged higher in early Asia, the move influenced by EUR/JPY demand, marking a high at $1.3246 before faltering.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: ECB, Fed are not eager to tighten too soon
EUR USD (1.3235) News that the ECB’s €40 billion crisis assetpurchase programme has just spent €9 billion for the purpose, comesamid discussions on the ECB’s exit strategy and evokes nervousreaction among some investors. However a close look at the recentstatements emanating from the ECB and the Fed suggests thatneither have expressed any readiness to tighten.