Monthly Archives: March 2012
UBS Morning Adviser Asia
Dollar On The Back Foot The US dollar is starting the new week on the back foot, unable to fully shake off the effects of Friday’s softer than expected US housing data. The retreat in February new home sales to a 313k annual rate fell short of the 325k consensus, while the January sales print […]
FX CFTC: Dollar longs pared as EUR, JPY and GBP are bought
Currency speculators had a busy time in the week to last Tuesday with many position adjustments occuring all resulting in a net reduction of long dollar positions to the lowest level in a month, according to the latest data from the US Commodity Futures and Trading Commission. The net long dollar position versus eight IMM […]
US Market Summary
The USD stumbled against the euro and the yen Friday, after a U.S. housing report cast doubt on the strength of the economic turnaround and called into question the prior week’s ascendancy in the U.S. currency. New home sales in the U.S. fell for the second consecutive month in February, helping push the euro up […]
Americas FX Daily – USD gives back gains as risk stabilizes
USD gives back gains as risk stabilizes What happened overnight – French business confidence a bit better than expected – PBoC fixed USDCNY to new record low of 6.2891 – Fed’s Bullard sounds a hawkish note
UBS Morning Adviser America
Risk Off Continues Markets were quiet overnight but risk continued to trade on a weak tone ahead of Chairman Bernanke’s comments later today. There is very little data due and it appears the market is simply inclined to work on adopting defensive positions especially if data up ahead will continue to disappoint to the downside.
JPY Analysis
Opened in Asia at Y82.58 having suffered a sharp fall from Y83.47 to Y82.33 yesterday as the dollar wilted under the strain of some heavy cross sales following weak PMI data from China and Europe. weak short positions were squeezed out this morning in Tokyo as fixing demand led a recovery from early lows of […]
GBP Analysis
GBP closed in NY at $1.5816, the rate having recovered off post UK retail sales data lows of $1.5770 to make a brief show above resistance at $1.5820 ($1.5822 NY high). Rate extended recovery to $1.5827, settling between $1.5810/27 through most of the overnight session before extending the base to $1.5807 ahead of Europe.
EUR Analysis
EUR/USD closed in NY at 1.3202, after recovering off session lows of $1.31334, the recovery continuing into Asia as demand for EUR/JPY influenced the rate to an extended high of $1.32134 before settling between $1.3190/1.3210 for the balance of an otherwise subdued session.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Market sentiment is like the start of the year
EUR USD (1.3205) News of slowing output in China, as well as in the eurozone, appeared to sour the mood in the stock markets yesterday. Equity declines were not huge, at least not in context of the year-todate gains, but it seemed that investors’ had been mentally transported back to the beginning of 2012 when […]
Daily FX Technical Strategy: Spring cleaning
As the end of the first quarter looms large, we continue to see background evidence of profit taking across asset classes. At the end of a busy week we are looking for more signs to post today. The AUD looks most vulnerable to recent commodity price weakness with AUD/JPY looking almost certain to post a […]
Technical Analysis – FX Daily Majors
Today’s highlights: · USDJPY: Small “Double Top” through 83.01 favours defensive consolidation with risk down to 81.96 (which we look to hold), before next leg higher (to 85.54).
UBS Morning Adviser Europe
BoJ Board Changes Loom The absence of fresh economic data releases overnight did nothing to address lingering investor uncertainty over the sustainability of the global recovery. This made for generally range-bound FX trading conditions, although optimism was momentarily boosted when USDCNY fixed at a new all-time-low of 6.2891.