Monthly Archives: March 2012
Daily FX Technical Strategy: Eurozone back in the picture
We are concerned by the recent widening of some eurozone spreads such as those of Italy and Spain vs Germany. Although these spreads are well away from the peaks seen earlier this year, the risk is for near-term pressure to remain on the EUR.
UBS Morning Adviser America
Bernanke’s Speech Eyed It was a relatively quiet European session until all three major components of Germany’s IFO survey came in fractionally ahead of consensus expectations. The margin of surprise was marginal but the numbers came as a relief after last week’s extremely disappointing PMI report, and the euro got a brief boost. Heavy euro […]
EUR Analysis
EUR/USD closed in NY Friday at $1.3267, the rate recovering off a late pullback low of $1.3255 after touching a session high of $1.3284. Rate opened Asia around $1.3270 with early trade contained by $1.3270/73 in opening trade before pushing up to $1.3285 as market reacted to press reports that Germany’s Merkel would allow a […]
European FX Daily – Chop ahead of the Ifo
– JPY underperforms, Asian equities mixed – A decline in the German IFO is likely to weigh on the euro – Further improvement in US activities likely supportive of USD rally
FX Market Technical Research
EUR/USD continues to probe the 1.3291/1.3325 region (9th February high), it remains fairly choppy but ideally we would like to see failure here. A sustained break below intraday support at 1.3140 and the 55 day ma at 1.3130 is needed to further alleviate upside pressure and initiate a slide back to the recent low at […]
GBP/USD Analysis
Closed in NY at $1.5869, after being rejected from $1.5888 (76.4% of the earlier pullback from intraday highs of $1.5909 to $1.5820) to $1.5857 before recovering into the close. This recovery extended in early Asia, the rate edging up from its opening level of $1.5871 to $1.5885 before faltering ahead of the NY recovery high.
UBS Morning Adviser Europe
Yen Weakness Anticipated The last week of Japan’s fiscal year got underway overnight, and anticipation is already building that the crossover to the new year will prompt a resumption of the five-week-old USDJPY rally. Softer-than-expected US housing data on Friday forced USDJPY sharply lower, although we see this as only a temporary setback for the […]
EUR/USD Analysis
EUR/USD closed in NY Friday at $1.3267, the rate recovering off a late pullback low of $1.3255 after touching a session high of $1.3283. Corrective pullbacks off intraday highs (Europe Friday) of $1.3294 were contained by stronger demand placed lower down at $1.3220.
Gold Analysis
Spot Gold is consolidating Friday’s gains trading having closed in NY around $1662. This morning saw a blip higher with early EUR/USD strength in reaction to an article in Der Spiegel that Germany may relax its resistance to a firewall increase in the ESM/EFSF.
Crude Oil Analysis
Nymex May WTI crude prices have slipped back in Asian at the start of the new week, having spiked in NY on Friday on news that Iranian oil exports had fallen by 300k barrels a day according to a report from Geneva based tanker tracker Petrologistics.
Small comfort for the NZD as trade data improves in February
The Asian session kicked off with the release of New Zealand’s trade data for February, which showed a welcome rebound from January’s disappointment. The balance reverted back into surplus with +NZ$161 mln print, slightly better than the consensus +NZ$153 mln, compounded by an upward revision to January’s deficit to –NZ$159 mln, which gave the NZD […]
USD/JPY Analysis
Opened in Asia this morning at Y82.35 from Friday lows of Y81.97 in NY on Friday, and after early lows of Y82.33 has built steadily higher in from Y82.33 to Y82.78 amid further Toshin issuance talk. Walls of offers from Y82.80 up towards Y83.00 have so far stalled the move with a break through Y83.00 […]