Monthly Archives: March 2012
GBP/USD Analysis
Closed in NY at $1.5966, off NY rally highs of $1.5974 seen after markets reacted to dovish comments from Fed’s Bernanke. Rate touched an early high in Asia of $1.5972, as early direction was dictated by strong French name EUR/JPY demand, but move held off the NY high as well as the reported option barrier […]
UBS Morning Adviser Europe
Bernanke Weakens USD Those hoping for less dovish commentary from Fed Chair Bernanke were mostly disappointed. Although he acknowledged the recent “genuine improvement” in the labour market, he again emphasised that the situation is still “far from normal”. What hurt the dollar most was Bernanke’s view that “continued accommodative policies” could help boost employment.
EUR/USD Analysis
Closed in NY at $1.3360, off traded highs at $1.3368 seen after the markets reacted to Fed Bernanke’s dovish comments concerning US unemployment. Rate basically flatlined through Asia with trade contained within a relatively tight range of $1.3343/66.
FX Market Technical Research
EUR/USD has eroded interim resistance at the 1.3291/1.3325 region (9th February high), and we would allow for an extension of the rally towards the top of the 7 month channel at 1.3463. this together with the February high at 1.3487 should provoke failure. Initial support is 1.3291, 1.3192.
Bernanke puts a new sets of skids under the dollar, for now
Early in the Asian session RBA’s Debelle gave an additional prop to the AUD’s revival overnight by saying that the AUD is in the “right balance” relative to the (near record high) terms of trade while adding that Australia’s mortgage rates are about where the central bank wants them to be.
Crude Oil Analysis
Nymex crude prices were rather mixed yesterday trading in a fairly tight range despite Fed Bernanke’s dovish comments which sparked a wave of dollar weakness on QE3 fears and drove equities sky high. The commodity sector picked up on the comments but lagged the dollar weakness elsewhere.
AUD/USD Analysis
Opened in Sydney around $1.0533 after a sharp rally off yesterday’s european lows of $1.0426 on Fed Bernanke’s comments, which sparked risk on sentiment amid QE3 fears and led S&P to levels not seen since 2008. Commodity markets pushed sharply higher on a wave of USD weakness and AUD bounced to $1.0546 before running out […]
USD/JPY Analysis
A quiet session in Asia this morning after the dollar was buffeted by a mixed US Treasury market yesterday, but the pair holding firm despite the dovish Bernanke comments, with sharp rises in yen crosses underpinning the dollar. USD/JPY opened in Asia at Y82.82 and after a brief low of Y82.80 headed higher on investor […]
UBS Morning Adviser Asia
Post-Bernanke Dollar Decline Those hoping for less dovish commentary from Bernanke overnight were disappointed, as the Fed Chairman put the US dollar on the defensive by asserting that “the continued weakness in aggregate demand is likely the predominant factor” behind the increase in long-term US unemployment.
FX Daily Strategist: US
Better IFO followed by profit taking on EUR-crosses Markets have been trading without any clear sense of conviction, however the mood in FX and equities has been more riskoff. The concern appears centred on Spain with the IBEX down 1.60%, while other bourses are only about 0.20% lower- this however is at odds with price […]
Americas FX Daily – Germany opens to compromise on firewall
Germany opens to compromise on firewall What happened overnight – Germany reportedly supporting temporary expansion of firewall – German Ifo surprises higher, at odds with PMI print
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Prudence vs. exit strategy
EUR USD (1.3205) Last week investors managed to push the euro to the highest point (fractionally) in the last three weeks. But the sentiment towards the euro remains ambiguous. With Spanish 10-year bond yields rising again, the Italian PM warning about renewed contagion, and some prominent opinion-makers seeing the German Chancellor’s reticence to increasing the […]