Monthly Archives: March 2012
FX Techs: London Open
At a glance: Signs of change The weak market behavior observed on Tuesday intensified yesterday when risk markets broke a couple of trend lines and neckline supports across the board. This is still nothing decisive yet on big scale, but could be interpreted as the early tremors of a bigger setback.
GBP/USD Analysis
Closed in NY at $1.5890, off extended pullback lows of $1.5842, as well as finishing the session well clear of its 200-dma at $1.5851 after probing below. Rate marked lows into early Asia at $1.5885 before stepping its way higher through the balance of the session, the rate edging to an eventual session high of […]
FX Market Technical Research
EUR/USD no change – the market will shortly encounter the top of the 7 month channel at 1.3449, this together with the February high at 1.3487 should provoke failure. However a break below 1.3263 (near term uptrend) is needed to alleviate immediate upside pressure.
UBS Morning Adviser Europe
AUD Still Vulnerable The Australian dollar struggled through the overnight session, weighed down by lingering concern over how severe the slowdown in China could become. A McCrann article in the Australian press added to the selling pressure, claiming that a cut to the RBA’s cash rate at next Tuesday’s meeting is actually more likely than […]
EUR/USD Analysis
Closed in NY at $1.3323 after rate had recovered from session lows of $1.3277 to $1.3330. Rate edged its way back to retest that late NY recovery high but move met headwind supply linked to EUR/JPY sales which restricted the recovery move to $1.33328.
Gold Analysis
Spot gold prices are under pressure again this morning in Asia slipping to recent lows of $1658.35 from early highs of $1665. The move seen as an extension of yesterday’s drop from $1684.60 as dollar strength picks up and concerns over China weigh on sentiment.
Crude Oil Analysis
May Nymex WTI crude prices are steady this morning around $105.35 in Asia, having fallen back yesterday on a number of issues starting with Chinese growth fears that hit the equity markets. Discussions between US, UK and France over possible release of Strategic reserves to counter any supply shortages as a result of the Iranian […]
USD/JPY Analysis
Opened at Y82.90 in Asia and after a small blip up to Y82.97 fell back sharply on cross sales into the fixing amid thin year-end trading. USD tumbled, the move initially on exporter sales before cross flows also clicked in sending the pair to Y82.54, later recovering to Y82.71.
AUD selling still featured in today’s Asian session
The AUD remained the market mover during the Asian session with steady selling in the AUDJPY cross (probably linked to JPY repatriation flows into financial year-end) sending the AUDUSD below overnight lows, but only marginally so. Profit-taking at lunchtime has since led to consolidation but we still remained below the 1.04 mark.
AUD/USD Analysis
Opened in Asia at $1.0389 and after an early rise to $1.0405 was pushed lower on cross sales and EUR/AUD strength, led by AUD/JPY. Traders are getting nervous of some very large long positions built on the back of expected Toshin issuance and the cross fell back sharply from early highs of Y86.27, tripping stops […]
UBS Morning Adviser Asia
Sticking With The Dollar Softer than expected data, weaker equity markets and lower commodity prices have all served to underpin the US dollar, which has managed to shrug off the ‘Bernanke effect’. The downward revision to UK Q4 GDP (-0.3% q/q) and modest bounce in US February durable goods orders (+2.2% m/m) were the latest […]
UBS Morning Adviser America
Risk Interest Soft Bernanke’s attempts to contain investor fears over early normalization seemed to have worked for no more than 24 hours. Even though he backed up the argument yesterday by warning against premature declarations of ‘victory’ over the economic recovery, the market is coming to realize that there are big differences between no change […]