Monthly Archives: March 2012
AUD/USD Analysis
Opened in Asia at $1.0383 having been bullied to lows of $1.0303 in NY last seen in mid January, on year-end AUD/JPY flows. An afternoon rally in stocks and EUR/JPY then led EUR/USD back up to $1.3300 which in turn boosted the AUD/USD again.
USDJPY trades lower in Asia on JPY repatriation/month-end themes
There was some welcome news for the Bank of Japan early in the Asian session as core inflation rose for the first time in 5 months in February. National CPI ex-food rose 0.1 percent y/y, higher than forecasts and above last month’s 0.1 percent decline.
USD/JPY Analysis
Opened in Asia at Y82.46 and nudged up to Y82.50 before Japanese names and a Major US black box fund sold aggressively taking the pair down to Y82.25. A second wave then targeted the Y82.00 level and a big bid at Y81.95. This was eventually filled tripping large stops through Y81.90 to lows of Y81.83.
UBS Morning Adviser Asia
Risk Remains Under Pressure Lower UST yields and the stronger yen overnight highlighted the lingering concerns about global growth, with the latest US data (claims down to 359k from 364k; Q4 GDP growth unrevised at a 3.0% annual rate; Q4 operating profits up 0.9% q/q) failing to really inspire. Yet, after touching sub-82 territory, USDJPY […]
UBS Morning Adviser America
Growth Assets Challenged Risk continued to struggle overnight as major European bourses are still trading in the red, following a very tame session in Asia, driven by weak indices across the Greater China region. Clearly, growth concerns are now becoming the dominant driver and the commodity bloc in particular is being hard it.
GBP Analysis
GBP closed in NY at $1.5890, off extended pullback lows of $1.5842, as well as finishing the session above its 200-dma at $1.5851. Rate marked lows into early Asia at $1.5885 before stepping its way higher through the balance of the session, the rate edging to an eventual session high of $1.5910 ahead of the […]
EUR Analysis
EUR/USD closed in NY at $1.3323 after rate had recovered from session lows of $1.3277 to $1.3330. Rate edged its way back to retest that late NY recovery high but move met headwind supply linked to EUR/JPY sales which restricted the move to $1.33328. Rate drifted off highs, the move down led by further sales […]
JPY Analysis
Opened at Y82.90 in Asia and after a small blip up to Y82.97 fell back sharply on cross sales into the fixing amid thin year end trading. Dollar tumbled, the move initially on exporter sales before cross flows also clicked in sending the pair to Y82.54, later recovering to Y82.71.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Market focus meanders back to the eurozone
EUR USD (1.3320) The eurozone finance ministers meeting slated to discuss the fate of pan-European rescue vehicles starts on Friday.With the impact of Bernanke’s recent dovish statements now welldigested, it is not surprising that the news focus is shifting from the USeconomic data to the eurozone’s political economy.
Bonds Analysis
German government bonds are opening firmer Thursday, amid China and North Korea jitters, combined with uncertainty about the size of the eurozone bailout fund. Focus remains on Spain where a general strike is planned today ahead of PM Mariano Rajoy 2012 budget presentation on Friday.
FX Daily Strategist: Europe
USD performance mixed in undecided market; negative AUDNZD outlook may extend The resonance of Fed Chairman Bernanke’s dovish comments seem to have faded in the FX markets on Wednesday as USD performance was mixed, with the commodity block under some pressure. While the February durable goods number was an improvement on January, it came in […]
Technical Analysis – FX Daily Majors
Today’s highlights: AUDUSD: Spotlight on six month up trend line, 1.0325 (setting back from Q1 topping trend barrier). A close below this key support risks April move to 1.0145/15 target. NZDUSD: Poised at minor chart prop at .8143 (back from ahead of .8282 chart resistance) with risk still lower back our .8050/7996 target (and lower […]