Monthly Archives: March 2012
UBS Morning Adviser Asia
Trade Deficit Watch In Japan Having slipped from its overnight highs above 84 amid the softer UST yield profile, USDJPY has steadied going into the release of Japan’s February trade report, which should not provide much encouragement for the yen. While exports are likely to improve in the wake of the distortions caused by the […]
FX Daily Strategist: US
FX markets lacking direction, correlation between yields USD looser than many supposed FX markets continue to trade with a lack of clear direction, characterised by quick reversals and a range of mostly unconvincing explanations being wheeled out for the moves. A slow grind higher in equities in the US session, after sharp opening losses suggested […]
UBS Morning Adviser America
UK Budget Due FX markets have maintained the narrow ranges seen but risk appetite is on a better footing compared to previous sessions. Growth sustainability on a global basis remains the focus but the lack of negative headlines is now seen as a sufficient enough reason to stay the course, especially with policy expectations in […]
BOE Minutes (Mar): BOE voted 7-2 for unchanged APF just as at the Feb meeting.
The immediate decision: After increasing the asset purchase facility (APF) by GBP 50bn to GBP 325bn at the February meeting and after the Inflation Report released in February, we did not expect any material changes in the monetary policy stance at the March meeting.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Euro demand emerges from the dollar-zone
EUR USD (1.3270) The currency markets appear to be struggling to interpret the risks for the euro and for the dollar. On one hand, high oil prices, rising US long yields, and the prospects of tighter Fed policy earlier than 2014, are considered the most apparent short-term challenges for the dollar; on the other, investors […]
GBP/USD Analysis
Closed in NY at $1.5859 (200-dma Tuesday), off recovery highs of $1.5887, after rate had rallied back from earlier lows of $1.5831. Rate marked Asian lows at $1.5856 in opening trade before edging higher, the rate taking its cue from EUR/USD rise, trading to a high of $1.5896 before momentum faltered.
UBS Morning Adviser Europe
AUD Finds A Foothold The Australian dollar managed to steady itself overnight after Tuesday’s scare about China’s appetite for iron ore, but the currency could not fully recover lost ground. Tuesday’s comments from an Australian miner appeared to provide anecdotal evidence of a Chinese slowdown and we can expect AUD to show extreme sensitivity to […]
EUR/USD Analysis
Closed in NY at $1.3222, having seen recovery highs in this session of $1.3253, off earlier lows of $1.3172. EUR/USD was on the rise into early Asia, tripping stops as rate moved above the NY high before demand for EUR/JPY, as rate targeted and triggered the barrier at Y111.00, boosted the move to $1.3273.
Crude Oil Analysis
Nymex crude prices are attempting to rally this morning in Asia with the May contract up around $106.50 after closing yesterday at $106.07. The contract fell back from highs of $108.37 early yesterday as the EUR/USD and equities were driven lower following a collapse in the AUD/USD on comments from BHP that demand for Australian […]
AUD/USD Analysis
Opened in Sydney around $1.0480 and slipped to $1.0467 in the wake of yesterday’s sharp BHP led fall from $1.0625 to NY lows of $1.0457. Rumoured strong bids from exporters ahead of $1.0450 deterred further downward momentum and the pair headed higher led by Japanese, Singapore and HK names tripping stops up through $1.0500 to […]
USD/JPY Analysis
Opened in Asia at Y83.73 and came under pressure from the start on exporter sales, but the move was cushioned by demand in EUR/JPY into the Tokyo fix which pulled the dollar back up from a fall to Y83.53 with the pair recovering to Y83.74.
Fears of China slowdown retreat; risk currencies regain ground
In contrast to BHP Billiton’s gloomy outlook for China demand for iron ore announced yesterday, Australia’s Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE) issued its latest forecasts – and it was certainly upbeat. The agency expects iron ore exports to rise by more than 50 percent by 2016/17 compared with last year on the back […]