Monthly Archives: March 2012
FX Market Technical Research
EUR/USD rallied towards and again failed just ahead of the 1.3291/1.3325 region (9th February high), we look for this to provoke failure. The market will need to erode intraday support at 1.3140 to further alleviate upside pressure and initiate a slide back to the 55 day ma at 1.3112 en route to the recent low […]
FX Focus: AUD outlook – Two sides of the same coin
* We recently lowered our AUD/USD forecast path (Emerging Markets Quarterly: Repositioning, not playing defence, 20 March 2012) and now expect AUD/USD to trade in a 1.04-1.07 range over the next 12 months. This is consistent with our technical strategists’ expectation of AUD/USD remaining in a 1.01-1.10 range over the next 6-8 months.
FX Daily Strategist: Europe
Weaker US housing data sees USD stronger? FX market still struggling for direction FX markets on Wednesday continued to reflect a lack of conviction. Existing home sales disappointed, but despite the resulting rally in US Treasuries, USD finished stronger against most G10 currencies, gaining most against AUD – although, as would be expected given the […]
Technical Analysis
The euro rather resilient (so far) to bearish signals coming out of Spain (bank CDS’s took off yesterday, bearish key day reversal in IBEX), JPY – the stage is set for a comeback (EURJPY bearish key day reversal, USDJPY double top?, AUDJPY retreating, JPYSEK false downside break),
GBP/USD Analysis
Closed in NY at $1.5863, off session lows of $1.5817, as well as above its 200-dma which Wednesday came in at $1.5857 (today $1.5856). The recovery continued into Asia, the rate pushing to a session high of $1.5885 ($1.5883 61.8% $1.5924/1.5817) before faltering then dropping back as markets reacted to the release of weaker than […]
UBS Morning Adviser Europe
China PMI Injures AUD AUDUSD dropped 100 pips after China’s flash PMI estimate for March came in well below February’s final print (48.1 versus previous 49.6). The PMI also added to the kiwi’s troubles, compounding the selloff that began earlier after a very weak New Zealand GDP report.
Gold Analysis
Spot gold is holding steady around $1650 this morning but off early highs in Asia of $1656.50 after a weaker than expected Chinese PMI release , which saw aussie-dollar kicked sharply lower on fears of a slowdown in the Chinese economy.
EUR/USD Analysis
Closed in NY at $1.3210, having been pressed to lows in this session of $1.3178 from earlier highs in Europe of $1.3286. Slow start in Asia before rate eventually edged higher, the move influenced by EUR/JPY demand, marking an early high at $1.3246 before faltering.
Crude Oil Analysis
Nymex Crude prices have eased back this morning in Asia after rising yesterday on the back of a surprise draw in domestic crude inventories. The EIA reported a draw of 1.16 million barrels for the latest reporting week which was in sharp contrast to analysts expectations of a 2 million barrel build.
AUD/USD Analysis
Opened in Asia at $1.0459 after another mauling in Europe and NY yesterday which saw the pair fall from $1.0528 to $1.0421 on China concerns and Pimco forecasts of large falls in GBP, EUR and AUD. AUD received an early lift in Asia this morning on talk of a large Toshin issuance next week, together […]
USD/JPY Analysis
Opened in Asia at Y3.39 after trading down from early highs of Y84.10 in NY to Y83.30 on the back of a reversal lower in US treasury yields. Asia this morning has seen the pair largely at the mercy of cross moves. Early EUR/JPY demand lead the dollar up to Y83.47 before a surprise Japanese […]
AUD pushed lower as China flash PMI data slides further
Signs of weakening global growth were reflected in today’s flash estimate of China’s manufacturing PMI data for March, which slid to 48.1 from 49.6 last time. Note this is the first “real month” of data this year now that the Lunar New Year distortions are out of the way and is not suggesting a rosy […]