Monthly Archives: March 2012
UBS Morning Adviser America
NOK Surges The NOK was the star performer overnight as a raft of activity data pointed to a strong rebound in general economic conditions. Retail sales and PMI figures surprised massively to the upside, and markets are left scratching heads as to why Norges Bank painted such a bleak outlook on the economy when they […]
EUR Analysis
EUR/USD closed in NY at $1.3300 having recovered off session lows of $1.3251 through the NY afternoon. Rate marked lows into early Asia at $1.3295, as early traders targeted downside stops in USD/JPY and EUR/JPY, with rate reversing higher as Japanese life companies emerged as strong EUR/JPY buyers which propelled EUR/USD higher.
GBP Analysis
GBP closed in NY at $1.5950, having recovered off session lows of $1.5860. Rate touched an early session low of $1.5949 before extending the recovery, breaking above key resistance at $1.5964 to take it on to an eventual session high of $1.5990 ahead of the European open.
JPY Analysis
Opened in Asia at Y82.46 and nudged up to Y82.50 before Japanese names and a Major US black box fund sold aggressively taking the pair down to Y82.25. A second wave then targeted the Y82.00 level and a big bid at Y81.95. This was eventually filled tripping large stops through Y81.90 to lows of Y81.83.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook : Scepticism on Europe has no follow-through
EUR USD (1.3320) The early weakness in the euro yesterday was accompanied by a popular perception of a divergence between the US and eurozone economies. Those bearish on the euro were provided with ample fuel for their views.
FX Daily Strategist: Europe
EUR-crosses prone to sell the fact on Eurogroup; Spain budget also in focus EUR-crosses could be vulnerable to a “sell the fact” response on today’s European Finance Ministers meeting (0800 GMT). Markets have been led to believe this will result in agreement on a plan to combine the unused 240bn lending capacity of the EFSF […]
UBS Morning Adviser Europe
Quarter-End Flows Underway Price action in Asia was dominated by month-end and quarter-end flows into the Tokyo fix, on this the last day of Japan’s fiscal year. The euro, and Australian and New Zealand dollars received a boost, but USDJPY remains heavy as UST yields continue to drift lower.
Gold Analysis
Spot gold is trading around $1661 this morning, fractionally above yesterday’s european opening levels of $1658, after a whippy day on Thursday that saw midday highs around $1664 eroded to $1645.25 on risk off sentiment over EU peripheral concerns and falling equities.
Crude Oil Analysis
May Nymex WTI crude prices have been steady this morning in Asia trading a $103.20-56 range in quiet trade after yesterday’s sharp fall led by equities and further talk of releases of Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR),with White House spokesman Jay Carney saying ” the option is on the table but no decision has been made”.
FX Market Technical Research
EUR/USD remains capable of testing the top of the 7 month channel at 1.3442, this together with the February high at 1.3487 should provoke failure. The near term uptrend has been eroded and we should see the market ease back towards the 20 and 55 day ma at 1.3210/1.3174.
GBP/USD Analysis
Closed in NY at $1.5950, having recovered off session lows of $1.5860. Rate touched an early session low of $1.5949 before extending the recovery, the move breaking above key resistance at $1.5964 to take it on to an eventual high of $1.5990 ahead of the European open.
EUR/USD Analysis
Closed in NY at $1.3300 having recovered off session lows of $1.3251 through the NY afternoon. Rate marked lows into early Asia at $1.3295, as early traders targeted downside stops in USD/JPY and EUR/JPY, but after triggering stops in USD/JPY below Y8190 Japanese life companies emerged a strong buyers of this pair and EUR/JPY which […]