Monthly Archives: February 2012
Bond Analysis
German government bonds trading little changed Friday into the New York session and trading in tight ranges ahead of expiry of the March Bund options contract later this session. Volumes are also light ahead of the G-20 Summit in Mexico this weekend.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook : Observers struggle to explain euro strength
EUR USD (1.3370) Many market commentators attribute the euro’s current strength to yesterday’s better-than-expected German IFO. This may be because this was the only euro-positive release of the day.
FX Daily Strategist: Europe
We continue to favour AUD into next week; JPY moving closer to the top of the Ichimoku cloud AUD remained steady in response to RBA Govnenor Steven’s warning that forex intervention is an option if the AUD is considered too strong, commenting that the recent rise in AUD’s strength has been at a time when […]
GBP Analysis
Cable closed in NY at $1.5740, having trailed EUR/USD stronger recovery extension to a session high of $1.5748, which in turn allowed the cross to extend its recent rise to stg0.8500.
EUR Analysis
EUR/USD closed in NY at $1.3370, having rallied strongly from a pullback low of $1.3270 to post extended recovery highs of $1.33747. Asia consolidated this move with trade during the main part of the session contained within a range of $1.3365/80 before dropping late on to $1.3357 into early Europe.
JPY Analysis
USD/JPY opened at Y80.00 after seeing lows of Y79.85 in NY following strong 7yr treasury auctions, but recovering on the back of strong real money and leveraged demand in the EUR/JPY which sparked a wave of short covering.
UniCredit EEMEA Daily
News CEE: Neutral – EC cuts 2012 GDP forecasts for the region, Poland remains clear outperformer (p1) BG: Neutral – Dec gross external debt down 0.8% mom (p2) PL: Positive – Jan retail sales rose by 14.3% yoy (p2) RO: Mixed – Jan banking deposits grow 0.4% mom / Govt. sells RON 122mn 15Y T-Bonds […]
FX Market Technical Research
EUR/USD has cleared the 1.3322 resistance and at this point we must allow for a further rally near term towards the top of its 6 month down channel at 1.3520 currently. The 50% retracement at 1.3435 (of the sell off from the October high) is likely to offer some interim resistance en route.
Technical Analysis
Euro strength on hold overnight but looks likely to continue for at least another day or two. Oil, stocks and bonds all rose (but for how much longer?). EURUSD next correction targets, 1.3435 and/or the 1.36-area,
GBP/USD Analysis
Closed in NY at $1.5740, having trailed EUR/USD stronger recovery extension to a session high of $1.5748, which in turn allowed the cross to extend its recent rise to stg0.8500.
UBS Morning Adviser Europe
Bank Downgrades Knock AUD The Australian dollar fell towards the end of the Asia session after Fitch downgraded the ratings of three Australian banks. Earlier, AUD got a modest boost from parliamentary testimony by RBA Governor Stevens who painted a relatively upbeat picture of the economic outlook.
Gold Analysis
Spot gold has been fairly steady in Asia this morning but is struggling to break through yesterday’s $1787.50 highs despite a strong run up in crude oil prices and a resurgent AUD/USD this morning.