Monthly Archives: February 2012
GBP Analysis
Cable closed in NY at $1.5875, recovering off pullback lows of $1.5870 after rate had seen extended highs of $1.5900. The recovery extended into early Asian trade on cross yen demand, pushing to $1.5904.
EUR Analysis
EUR/USD closed in NY at $1.3447, recovering back from pullback lows of $1.3444 after posting highs of $1.34869. Rate extended recovery to $1.3480 in early Asia, as rate was lifted by strong demand for EUR/JPY out of Tokyo.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: The euro needs to sneak a peek behind the LTRO
EUR USD (1.3445) Given that the German Parliament will vote today to approve the second Greek bailout, it was clear from the outset that Germany would not agree to top up the pan-European rescue vehicles, just yet.
Daily FX Technical Strategy: Trend ending signals for USD/JPY
Last Friday USD/JPY closed above its weekly cloud for the first time since Jul 2007 suggesting that the long-term downtrend is over. If this is the case then we would expect to see further confirmation this Wednesday with the dollar closing the month above its 21-month average (80.90).
Technical Analysis
Euro rally continued Friday without much sign of stretch, still surprisingly small adjustments to the non-commercial short euro position (latest reporting period = Tuesday close last week).
EUR/USD Analysis
Closed in NY at $1.3455, off traded highs of $1.34869. Rate extended its recovery off late NY session pullback lows of $1.3444 to $1.3480 in early Asia, as rate was lifted by strong demand for EUR/JPY out of Tokyo.
UBS Morning Adviser Europe
Euro Firms Post-G20 The Euro made an early dash towards 1.35 despite a lack of commitment by the G20 on strengthening the firewall around the Eurozone. Nonetheless, most global policymakers appeared reassured that the situation in the Eurozone has stabilised and some degree of confidence has returned.
Crude Oil Analysis
Nymex and Ice Brent crude prices continue to gather support from tensions in the Middle East (notably Iran, who continue to dismiss allegations about it’s nuclear program). US Treas Sec Geithner is now considering releasing some strategic oil reserves as the recent price rises threaten the global economy.
USD/JPY Analysis
Opened around Y81.25 after closing in NY at Y81.20 and after an initial slip to Y81.22 headed higher on a combination of AUD and EUR cross buying to Y81.67 on corporate month end demand. Profit taking across the board in the yen complex then followed shortly after Japan opened.
AUD/USD Analysis
Opened at $1.0694 in Asia this morning and headed up in early trading from $1.0688 to $1.0718 on the back of some strong AUD/JPY buying which took out a Y87.00 barrier to highs of Y87.48, before profit taking set in on Tokyo’s arrival with a fall back to Y86.45.
UBS Morning Adviser Asia
G20 Procrastinates The weekend G20 meeting broke up without any specific decision on how – or even whether – to boost IMF resources with the intention of having extra firepower on standby if Europe needs it. Officials said they would revisit the issue at the next meeting in April, but would first need to see […]
UBS Morning Adviser America
EURUSD Through 1.34 The recent dollar weakness continued versus risk currencies in Europe. In the absence of major news stories or data releases the stable risk environment remained, with the euro breaking through 1.34 and AUD recovering some of its earlier losses following a Fitch downgraded the ratings of three Australian banks. Earlier,