Monthly Archives: February 2012
GBP/USD Analysis
Closed in NY at $1.5820, off pullback lows of $1.5810 after rate had posted extended highs during Monday’s Asian session of $1.5904. Rate posted an early Asian low of $1.5815 before edging higher through the session to $1.5848, as rate tracked EUR/USD recovery, though move was slightly tempered as EUR/GBP edged up from stg0.8464 to […]
UBS Morning Adviser Europe
ISDA Deliberates On Greece S&P cut Greece’s sovereign rating to ‘selective default’ during the US session, but the FX reaction was minimal for several reasons. First, the move had been signalled months ago and the timing overnight came as no surprise.
Gold Analysis
Spot gold is pushing higher in Asia this morning having eased back on Monday. Crude oil prices and the EUR/USD were pegged back from recent highs following S&P’s downgrade of EFSF’s outlook to negative, and talk that Merkel would have to rely on opposition support to gain Germany’s approval of the bail out.
Currency Weekly: FX and oil: Drilling down to what actually happens
Rather than look at how economics suggests FX “should” behave when oil prices rise, we examine how FX “has” behaved in the past. Oil producers are the winners. However, one might have expected all “risk on” currencies to suffer and safe haven FX to thrive with lower equities.
Crude Oil Analysis
April Nymex WTI crude prices are holding steady in Asia this morning around $108.40 after losing over $2 yesterday as the euro succumbed to pressure from EUR/JPY sales and the Nymex markets saw some profit taking after a failure to breach the $110 level.
AUD/USD Analysis
Opened in Asia at $1.0754 having put in a strong recovery in NY from lows of $1.0650 seen in Europe. The recovery move was largely seen on some heavy selling in EUR/AUD after posting earlier highs of A$1.2619 in Asia yesterday.
USD/JPY Analysis
Opened in Asia at Y80.61 having been skittled lower yesterday following a clear out of EUR/JPY longs and month end flows. The cross fell in Tokyo after failing to take out a Y110.00 barrier (high Y109.96) and ran down through Europe to lows of Y107.19 in early NY trading.
UBS Morning Adviser Asia
Greece In ‘Selective Default’ Late during the US session S&P downgraded Greece to ‘selective default’, from CC. The agency noted that the CAC insertion has led to the debt plan to be a distressed debt restructuring, though the ratings should be revised back to CCC post-exchange.
Bond Analysis
German government bonds trading higher into the New York session Monday, amid risk-aversion and stop loss buying after weekend G20 meeting failed to offer a quick fix for the Greek debt crisis.
FX Daily Strategist: Europe
No oil price worries in evidence Friday The S&P500 made its highest close since June 5, 2008 on Friday, while in G10 FX, SEK, representing the country most exposed to the global growth cycle, was the strongest performer on the day and second biggest gainer on the week versus the USD (+2.65%, just pipped by […]
Measuring and analyzing positioning, flows and trends in the FX market
More active bets on falling JPY and less so on GBP The IMM data for the period 15-21 Feb revealed: The JPY net speculative long position fell further but was this time driven by added short contracts and not by reduced long contracts as was the case last week.
UBS Morning Adviser America
USDJPY Pushes Lower The JPY was the stand-out performer in the European session as it reversed earlier losses in Asia and moved back down to 80.75 versus the dollar. The greenback was generally better bid, in line with a softer risk environment and the euro moved back lower towards 1.34.