Monthly Archives: February 2012
UBS Morning Adviser Europe
LTRO 2.0 Looms The euro advanced further during the Asia session ahead of today’s 3y LTRO. Our bank analysts and economists expect liquidity demand to reach EUR492 bn. Having fallen steadily in recent weeks, the consensus appears to sit in the same vicinity. There is less agreement about how the euro will react to any […]
Markets steady ahead of the ECB’s LTRO giveaway
The last day of an extended February and the latest EBC LTRO giveaway looming tonight led to a quiet, range-bound session for Asian markets, though risk was generally favoured in the first half of trading.
Crude Oil Analysis
Nymex WTI crude prices are staging a recovery this morning after a heavy sell-off yesterday partly on profit taking, but also on fears from traders that the recent rise in prices may spark some demand destruction.
AUD/USD Analysis
Opened in Asia at $1.0765 on a firm footing following yesterday’s high closes in the DJIA and S&P, as risk appetite returned ahead of the ECB LTRO operations today. The pair picked up strongly in early trade on AUD/JPY demand out of Tokyo, despite weak housing data (Q4 construction data which fell 4.6%, but followed […]
USD/JPY Analysis
Opened in Asia at Y80.46 and was led higher by EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY demand as risk appetite built following yesterday high closes on the DJIA and S&P ahead of today’s ECB LTRO operations. The pair battled up to highs of Y80.69 before encountering dollar month-end selling and slipping back to Y80.31 in recent trade.
Asian Summary
EUR/USD opened in Asia at $1.3458 on a firm footing ahead of today’s ECB LTRO, despite poor US durable goods data and Eurogroup’s postponement of a firewall decision yesterday. The DJIA closed above 13,000 for the first time since 2008, as equities rallied with precious metals, despite falls in crude oil.
UBS Morning Adviser Asia
Ireland To Hold Referendum The euro came under pressure in the US session after Irish Prime Minister Kenny announced that there will be a referendum on the EU fiscal compact. It’s hard to extract the longer term implications of this move at this stage and in reality, it largely depends on the question asked (just […]
FX Ringside
Germany and Merkel in the limelight This weekend’s G20 statement was very clear. The provision of further IMF funding by member states will depend on the ability of the Eurozone countries and particularly Germany as largest contributor, to increase the size of the currency zone rescue fund.
UBS Morning Adviser America
Greece News Discounted Following S&P’s decision to lower Greek debt to ‘Selective Default’ rating last night, the ECB announced that it has temporarily suspended the Greek debt for use of collateral. This has been fairly well flagged and is a temporary part of the process – the ECB has previously agreed to continue to except […]
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook : LTRO2 could also augur well for the euro
EUR USD (1.3445) On the eve of LTRO2, the ECB’s president has reasons to feel some satisfaction. Data published by the Bank on Monday confirms that Italian and Spanish banks increased their respective domestic sovereign bond portfolios by impressive amounts.
Bond Analysis
German government bonds are opening moderately lower Tuesday as focus turns to the ECB’s second 3-year LTRO tomorrow. Estimates for the 3-year LTRO remain mixed. Some banks have raised estimates, given ECB’s extension of eligible collateral in non-marketable asset category, but some banks also have lowered their estimates as the haircuts on the additional collateral […]
Technical Analysis
EURUSD looks set to score one more high before dropping again… Bunds bullishly broke above key refs yesterday and look staged to score fresh cycle highs… US tens trails behind but also look bullish…