Daily Archives: February 29, 2012
USTB Analysis
US Treasuries open NY higher after overnight mixed flows. In TOKYO, Treasuries kept to a tight range with month-end buying coming into long end Tsys. Japanese accounts bought US 5-year notes, while front-end buying arose too but some Asian selling arose in intermediates and other 10-year selling.
Bonds Analysis
German government bonds trading mixed Wednesday with yield curve steeper in the wake of the ECB’s 3-year LTRO. Bunds came under pressure after ECB’s 3-year LTRO, where E529.5bln was alloted, with 800 banks bidding.
UBS Morning Adviser America
EUR 530 bn LTRO The ECB announced it is lending banks EUR 530 bn in the much anticipated 3-year LTRO. This was slightly above consensus estimates and above the December offering both in terms of the gross number and the number of banks participating (800 this time around).
GBP Analysis
GBP closed in NY at $1.5901, having pierced above its key 200-dma at $1.5903 (today $1.5902), though failed to close above. Rate dipped back to $1.5898 into early Asia before heading higher, the move triggering stops above $1.5910 before meeting resistance ahead of Feb 8 highs at $1.5929.
EUR Analysis
EUR/USD closed in NY at $1.3457 after rate had recovered off pullback lows of $1.3389 (lows seen on reaction to Ireland’s call for a referendum on the EU fiscal treaty), pushing to an intraday high of $1.34715 ahead of the close as risk outlook was boosted on the Dow close above 13000 (first time since […]
JPY Analysis
Opened in early Europe at Y80.44 and Y108.45, Opened in Asia at Y80.46 and was led higher by EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY demand as risk appetite built following yesterday high closes on the DJIA and S&P. The pair battled up to highs of Y80.69 before encountering dollar month-end selling and slipping back to Y80.31.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: LTRO2 take-up figure will not reveal all
EUR USD (1.3480) A collection of surveys estimating the LTRO2 take-up amount averages out around €500 billion. The figures indicate an attempt by investors to understand an event with repercussions (while generally now confirmed to be positive – Italian and Spanish bond yields are lower) which are nevertheless unrecognisable immediately.
FX Market Technical Research
EUR/USD: The break out of Monday’s inside day in the EUR/USD should determine the trend for the next few days. Since the break has been to the upside, the 1.3550 December high is now being targeted.
Technical Analysis
All eyes on the LTRO results now… EURUSD could be a “buy-the-rumor-sell-the-fact” experience… GBPUSD could extend the fresh yearly high scored, but there is more resistance above to consider… USDJPY under 80.00 would expose 79.55, but back over 80.80 would be renewed near-term bullish…
GBP/USD Analysis
Closed in NY at $1.5901, having pierced above its key 200-dma at $1.5903 (today $1.5902), though failed to close above. Rate dipped back to $1.5898 into early Asia before heading higher, the move triggering stops above $1.5910 before meeting resistance ahead of Feb 8 highs at $1.5929.
EUR/USD Analysis
Closed in NY at $1.3457 after rate had recovered off pullback lows of $1.3389 (lows seen on reaction to Ireland’s call for a referendum on the EU fiscal treaty), the rate pushing to an intraday high of $1.34715 ahead of the close as risk outlook was boosted on the Dow close above 13000 (first time […]
Gold Analysis
Spot gold continues to push higher with the general risk appetite ahead of today’s ECB LTRO operation, rising in Asia this morning to just clip past yesterday’s highs of $1790.20 to $1790.50. Further monetary easing is fueling the metal’s rise to 3 month highs as the spectre of inflation looms and heightens safe haven attraction.