Daily Archives: February 27, 2012
Bond Analysis
German government bonds trading higher into the New York session Monday, amid risk-aversion and stop loss buying after weekend G20 meeting failed to offer a quick fix for the Greek debt crisis.
FX Daily Strategist: Europe
No oil price worries in evidence Friday The S&P500 made its highest close since June 5, 2008 on Friday, while in G10 FX, SEK, representing the country most exposed to the global growth cycle, was the strongest performer on the day and second biggest gainer on the week versus the USD (+2.65%, just pipped by […]
Measuring and analyzing positioning, flows and trends in the FX market
More active bets on falling JPY and less so on GBP The IMM data for the period 15-21 Feb revealed: The JPY net speculative long position fell further but was this time driven by added short contracts and not by reduced long contracts as was the case last week.
UBS Morning Adviser America
USDJPY Pushes Lower The JPY was the stand-out performer in the European session as it reversed earlier losses in Asia and moved back down to 80.75 versus the dollar. The greenback was generally better bid, in line with a softer risk environment and the euro moved back lower towards 1.34.
GBP Analysis
Cable closed in NY at $1.5875, recovering off pullback lows of $1.5870 after rate had seen extended highs of $1.5900. The recovery extended into early Asian trade on cross yen demand, pushing to $1.5904.
EUR Analysis
EUR/USD closed in NY at $1.3447, recovering back from pullback lows of $1.3444 after posting highs of $1.34869. Rate extended recovery to $1.3480 in early Asia, as rate was lifted by strong demand for EUR/JPY out of Tokyo.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: The euro needs to sneak a peek behind the LTRO
EUR USD (1.3445) Given that the German Parliament will vote today to approve the second Greek bailout, it was clear from the outset that Germany would not agree to top up the pan-European rescue vehicles, just yet.
Daily FX Technical Strategy: Trend ending signals for USD/JPY
Last Friday USD/JPY closed above its weekly cloud for the first time since Jul 2007 suggesting that the long-term downtrend is over. If this is the case then we would expect to see further confirmation this Wednesday with the dollar closing the month above its 21-month average (80.90).
Technical Analysis
Euro rally continued Friday without much sign of stretch, still surprisingly small adjustments to the non-commercial short euro position (latest reporting period = Tuesday close last week).
EUR/USD Analysis
Closed in NY at $1.3455, off traded highs of $1.34869. Rate extended its recovery off late NY session pullback lows of $1.3444 to $1.3480 in early Asia, as rate was lifted by strong demand for EUR/JPY out of Tokyo.
UBS Morning Adviser Europe
Euro Firms Post-G20 The Euro made an early dash towards 1.35 despite a lack of commitment by the G20 on strengthening the firewall around the Eurozone. Nonetheless, most global policymakers appeared reassured that the situation in the Eurozone has stabilised and some degree of confidence has returned.
Crude Oil Analysis
Nymex and Ice Brent crude prices continue to gather support from tensions in the Middle East (notably Iran, who continue to dismiss allegations about it’s nuclear program). US Treas Sec Geithner is now considering releasing some strategic oil reserves as the recent price rises threaten the global economy.