Daily Archives: February 15, 2012
Crude Oil Analysis
Oil futures held onto early gains Wednesday after a government report showed a small decline in U.S. crude stockpiles. Light, sweet crude for March delivery rose 64 cents, or 0.7%, to $101.38 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Bond Analysis
German government bonds trading moderately higher Wednesday having recovered opening weakness amid caution over a Greek debt/bailout deal. News that today’s Eurogroup meeting will now be done via teleconference, and comments from Greek FinMin saying “there are still outstanding issues to be addressed”, suggests any decision on the second Greek aid package will be deferred […]
UBS Morning Adviser America
Euro Stable Ahead of Conference Call The euro stabilised and traded in a fairly narrow range in the European session. The confusion regarding last night’s cancellation of the Eurogroup meeting was not fully cleared up, though the teleconference is still due to go ahead at 16.00GMT, according to Juncker.
JPY Analysis
Opened in early Europe at Y78.48 and Y103.35. Opened in Asia at Y78.43 having finally broken higher in yesterday’s session through the 200 day MA at Y78.04. The USD topped out at Y78.54 in NY and saw steady buying throughout Tuesday from macro funds.
EUR/USD Analysis
Opened in early Europe at $1.3170. Recovered from lows of $1.3080 in NY after EU’s Juncker cancellation of today’s scheduled EU meeting, in favor of a conference call. Comments from German Fin Min Schaueble also failed to inspire confidence when he said that Europe was better prepared for a Greek default.
GBP/USD Analysis
Opened in early Europe at $1.5722 and stg0.8377. Opened in Asia at $1.5693 after lows in NY of $1.5645, GBP tracked the EUR weakness and also came under some pressure from macro sellers and model buying in EUR/GBP.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: The euro looks beyond Eurogroup meeting
EUR USD (1.3170) The multiple negotiations taking place around Greece seem to each be in a state of limbo. The Eurogroup chief, Juncker, has postponed the emergency finance ministers’ meeting to approve the €130 billion aid package and apparently a teleconference will be convened.
Daily FX Technical Strategy: Risk surge keeps USD on the back foot
Overnight the Sensex has gapped above its October 2011 high, reversing the downtrend of the preceeding 12 months. This is a fresh example of the improving risk outlook that has taken hold in 2012 and we note that the USD has also weakened overnight, backing away from the important resistance threatened by recent profit taking.
Bond Analysis
German government bonds opening lower Wednesday, but off their worst levels amid caution over a Greek debt/bailout deal. Risk-on sentiment waned after news that the emergency meeting of EU finance ministers to review Greece’s bailout plan has been called off & replaced by a teleconference because more “technical work” was needed between the Greek government […]
Gold Analysis
Spot gold is heading higher this morning on the back of some improved risk appetite following comments in the Asian session from China’s PBOC’s Zhou. The metal appears to be consolidating support around $1712/13, but remains relatively tightly range bound between there and $1733 which is just above the 14 day MA at $1732.10.
FX Market Technical Research
EUR/USD has sold off towards the 55 day ma at 1.3067, which together with the 38.2% retracement of the last leg up at 1.3056 appears to be holding the initial test. Rebounds from here should remain tepid – the market has recently severed its short term uptrend, this in conjunction with the divergence of the […]
Technical Analysis
The yen is the current underdog and could (if you give it a little time) lift to and above a pronounced 79.55 peak… Scandie FXers still perform (despite low volatility in EURSEK and a short-term stretch in EURNOK). Refs to keep in mind at the yearly EURSEK low of 8.7430 and last year’s low in […]