Daily Archives: February 6, 2012
Crude Oil Analysis
Crude futures headed lower Monday, retreating from Friday’s gains as fresh worries about European debt emerged. Light, sweet crude for March delivery recently traded $1.37, or 1.4%, lower at $96.47 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange traded 69 cents lower at $113.89 a barrel.
UBS Morning Adviser America
Euro Drags Risk Assets Lower The dollar gained further ground in Europe, driven by the euro as fears over the situation in Greece have resurfaced. While the market is hoping for a clinching of a debt swap deal today with private sector creditors, securing cross-party support for further austerity measures and securing further funding from […]
BUND Analysis
German government bonds trading higher Monday, but off their best levels as Italy 10-year spread reverses earlier widening move and after traders dismissed talk of Portuguese debt restructuring.
EUR/USD Analysis
Opened early Europe at $1.3086, EUR/USD closed in NY at $1.3157, with rate marked lower into early Asian trade as weekend failure to get an agreement from the governing Greek parties to the necessary reforms weighed on risk.
JPY Analysis
Opened in early Europe at Y76.65 and Y100.15 Opened in Asia at Y76.60 just off the highs seen in NY of Y76.73 following Friday’s strong NFP release. After an initial dip to Y76.50 this morning on EUR/JPY sales, the pair then picked up again through Friday’s high, taking out stops to Y76.80 before hitting profit […]
GBP/USD Analysis
Opened early Europe at $1.5776 stg0.8295 GBP closed in NY at $1.5820, having recovered off post FOMC pullback lows of $1.5750 to $1.5830. Rate marked session highs at $1.5822 into early Asia before getting dragged lower by EUR/USD, the latter feeling the weight of disappointment that the Greek governing parties could not agree necessary austerity […]
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Bernanke has yet to rule out QE3
EUR USD (1.3085) The surge in US payroll data triggered an equity rally. After initially falling the euro regained strength and finally closed lower at the pre-payroll levels. As the ISM data was also firm, the market is again discussing whether the odds against the QE3 have now increased and whether the Fed will tighten […]
Speculative Positions
Main conclusions Scaling back on net short EUR position and stretched Scandies SEB RAI and the Carry index moving higher and RAI is now closing in an the recent highs seen in mid Oct 2011.
FX Daily Strategist: Europe
Stellar payrolls report feed the risk-currency fire, but USD ends the day flat A sharp knee-jerk negative dollar reaction to what was a stellar US employment report was subsequently tempered by the sharp back-up in US Treasury yields and questioning not only of the likelihood of additional QE measures by the Fed but also the […]
Technical Analysis
The positive vibes ending last week seems to be prevailing, perhaps except the euro that has continued to slide after the topside failure. EURUSD still trapped in the 1.3026/1.3219 range but with a negative undertone, EURAUD have broken to a multi decades low,
Technical Analysis: Crunch time for Asian decoupling
The long-term Asian-Pacific outperformance trend is at an important juncture. The uptrend from 2002 has been broken and must be regained soon if the technical outlook is to remain positive.
UBS Morning Adviser Europe
Greek Government Response Due The euro suffered overnight as fears over the situation in Greece have resurfaced. While the market is hoping for a clinching of a debt swap deal today with private sector creditors, securing cross-party support for further austerity measures and securing further funding from the troika is proving far more difficult.