Daily Archives: February 3, 2012
A monthly run through the long-term charts
MAJORS FX: The dollar index violated a medium-term important “B-wave high” at 81.44 and this points closer to prior tops at ~89, but the bullish move wasn’t sustained and the low monthly close somewhat dilutes a bullish stance.
FX Market Analysis
A reluctance to place new bets ahead of key U.S. employment data trumped economic data and the trickle of euro-crisis headlines in European trading hours Friday, as major currencies generally held within tight ranges.
BOND Analysis
German government bonds trading higher Friday, with yield curve flatter ahead of the key US payrolls data. Bunds opened higher on position-squaring ahead of the US payrolls data and continued uncertainty over the Greek PSI deal, where further cracks in discussions are beginning to emerge.
Gold Analysis
Spot gold prices are slightly softer Friday, as prices sit in a tight range ahead of U.S. payrolls data due at 1330GMT. Asian trading hours saw very little movement, before prices began to firm up after the European cash equity openings.
UBS Morning Adviser America
Strong UK Services PMI Ahead of today’s payrolls numbers, FX markets were relatively subdued, although risk appetite was firm in the absence of any major developments in Europe. Sterling rallied after UK services PMI was above consensus at +56.0, rising from the December print of 54.0.
GBP/USD Analysis
Opened early Europe at $1.5819 stg0.8305, having recovered off pullback lows of $1.5795. Rate slipped into early Asian trade, with reported stops sub $1.5790 an early attraction. Rate dipped to an extended low of $1.5786 (off recent highs at $1.5884 Feb1) before picking up fresh demand.
JPY Analysis
Opened in early Europe at Y76.21 and Y100.13. Usual comments from Japan’s Finance Minister Azumi to take firm steps to combat any speculative moves in the JPY were ignored. The USD traded a Y76.14-26 range hemmed in by bids ahead of Y76.00 and exporter offers towards Y76.50.
UniCredit EEMEA Daily
News BG: Neutral – Jan international reserves decreased 2.8% mom (+6.2% yoy) (p2) CZ: Neutral – CNB leaves repo rate unchanged at a record low 0.75% (p2) HU: Neutral – State owned airline Malev files for bankruptcy and stops operation, fiscal impact should be small
EUR/USD Analysis
Opened early Europe at $1.3173, Euro-dollar closed in NY at $1.3145, having settled mid range after recovering off this session’s lows of $1.3085 and pushing up to $1.3187. Rate eased lower into Asia, touching $1.31144, the move down seen as a ‘normal’ Friday risk off Asian move, but given an added knock on release of […]
FX Daily Strategist: Europe
Greek PSI+ aside for now with NFP report on the schedule today The risk-on rally lost some steam by the end of the NY trading day with US equities ending the day basically flat while USD strengthened against most of G10 FX; Asian markets have settled into the usual pre-NFP lull.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Fed: Two degrees of freedom
EUR USD (1.3135) Ben Bernanke made an important comment about employment in his testimony yesterday: the Fed considers joblessness in the context of the whole population. This sentence might have been an acknowledgement of a Chicago Fed study we discussed in our last report.
Technical Analysis
AUD @ resistance, NOK/SEK @ support & silver bid EUR/USD – Still stuck in the 55d ma band…AUD/USD – At least short term exhausted…EUR/GBP – Hanging below the flag…