Daily Archives: February 2, 2012
Technical Analysis: Ending diagonals in Euro Stoxx & Gold
The bear market rally is doing its job and sucking people back into a bullish mindset. But the ending diagonals / rising wedges in Euro Stoxx and Gold are particularly dangerous patterns for bulls as they usually end in sharp down moves.
UBS Morning Adviser America
EUR Struggles For Upside The closely watched Spanish auction failed to excite markets. Although the Spanish Treasury secured their target allocation and the bid-to-cover ratios looked high, our Fixed Income team noted that the cutoff prices were very low.
FX Market Analysis
FX markets struggled for direction Thursday with traders nervous about putting on new bets ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s testimony later in the global day and Friday’s key nonfarm payrolls data.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
(1,3175) The EUR/USD confirmed a test of the 1,3025 level before propelling again higher forming a positive outside reversal. We have now 1,3230 – 1,3015 the levels to follow in the coming hours.
GBP/USD Analysis
Cable closed in NY at $1.5837, having seen extended recovery highs in this session of $1.5884 after the eventual break above $1.5800. Rate initially marked session lows at $1.5835 into Asian dealing before edging higher, the move up tracking the risk on moves in AUD and EUR/USD, with rate touching a high of $1.5857.
EUR/USD Analysis
Euro-dollar closed in NY at $1.3160, having seen recovery highs in this session of $1.32187, from earlier European lows of $1.3026, as risk was given a boost by release of generally firmer PMI data. Rate edged higher into early Asia, taking its lead from AUD as it rallied through barriers at $1.0750 on strong trade […]
JPY Analysis
Opened in Asia at Y76.20 after hitting a 2012 low of Y76.03 in midday European trading yesterday. Comments from Fin Min Azumi and an uptick in US treasury yields prevented further losses. Stops are seen aligned for a break of Y76.00 ahead of some Y75.80 bids and a Y75.50 barrier.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Job data is no reason for Fed to get less dovish
EUR USD (1.3070) Firm manufacturing data from across the globe boosted demand for equities and the euro rebound yesterday. With the Portuguese bond yields falling after a good auction and the Greek deal seemingly looking closer to resolution, the markets are now likely to focus on Fed. In his testimony before the Senate, Ben Bernanke […]
FX Daily Strategist: Europe
Nothing standing in the way of the risk rally? Global PMIs have added support to the overall risk environment, hinting that a more significant global downturn has been averted. PMIs from China, UK, Norway, Sweden and the Eurozone confirmed that growth remains steady.
Technical Analysis – FX Daily Majors
Today’s highlights: · DXY: Bearish “outside” pattern back from topping resistance at 79.50/70 leaves risk now to our correction target at 78.30/77.90 · EURUSD: Topping questioned, but whilst below 1.3235/44 prior support violations leave risk lower to 1.3026 (recent low/13-day EMA) and on to 1.2931 next
BUND Analysis
German government bonds are opening mixed with the 10-year area weighed ahead of the launch of France’s new 10-year benchmark OAT bond, in turn steepening the yield curve. Mar Bund futures contract put in a bearish engulfing pattern, and with sentiment weighed by market rumours suggesting a conclusion to the Greek debt talks.
FX Market Technical Research
EUR/USD while we remain biased towards failure at 1.3245/50, the 38.2% retracement of the move down from November, chart action at this juncture is not at all clear. The erosion of the near term uptrend has provoked NO follow through and we could even argue that there is a potential ‘bull flag’ developing.