Daily Archives: February 1, 2012
FX Daily Strategist: US
G10/USD (still) content to rally on any moderately positive Greek news The FX markets remain content to latch onto any positive catalyst they have with regard to Greece, and for a second day running. This time yesterday, it was a reaction to comments from Greek PM Papademos that a PSI+ accord may be reached by […]
CAD Analysis
The CAD firmed against the USD early Wednesday, as better-than-expected global economic data and a positive Portuguese bond auction helped to boost optimism over a global recovery and encouraged investors to move out of safe-haven assets.
UBS Morning Adviser America
PMI Boosts Abound Risk was back in favour on Wednesday as broadly positive manufacturing prints globally further consolidated expectations that fears over a global economic slowdown are overdone. Chinese and Australian PMI were the bright spots, while most European releases surprised to the upside.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Greek travails set a new reference point
EUR USD (1.3070) Weak US data dented the markets’ ‘risk-on’ mode, but did not provoke any meaningful dollar recovery. The euro, however, slid across the board. The delay in the finalisation of the Greek debt restructuring deal is likely weighing on the market.
GBP/USD Analysis
GBP closed in NY at $1.5760, having eased away from traded highs of $1.5798 and after failing to take out the reported barrier at the figure. GBP buoyancy was seen driven by month end flows as well as a strong corrective pullback in the EUR, which saw EUR/GBP break down to stg0.8280.
EUR/USD Analysis
EUR/USD closed in NY at $1.3084 after recovering off pullback lows of $1.3042. Rate got an early lift to $1.3091, as recovery extended, but this quickly reversed as rate became subject to negative cross flows led by sales of EUR/AUD. Rate squeezed back to $1.3050.
JPY Analysis
Opened in early Europe at Y76.22 and Y99.40 Opened in Asia this morning at Y76.27 after lows in NY of Y76.15, and quickly headed back down to the level again following sales of EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY in the Tokyo fixing, as lower US yields weighed on the pair.
UniCredit EEMEA Daily
News CZ: Neutral – The Finance Ministry presented an updated macroeconomic forecast, expecting this year’s GDP at +0.2%. (p2) KZ: Dovish – Jan CPI slows to 5.9%YoY from 7.4%YoY on the back of base effect (p2) TK: Dovish – CBT takes a dovish stance on inflation for the sake of growth (p3) RO: Positive – […]
FX Market Technical Research
EUR/USD has failed at 1.3245/50, the 38.2% retracement of the move down from November. It has eroded its short term uptrend and we regard this as negative price action – it suggests the correction is over and the market has resumed its downmove.
BUND Analysis
German government bonds are opening moderately lower Wednesday amid moderate risk-on after Chinese PMI from the semi-official CFLP and from HSBC came in above expectations and ahead of Germany’s 10-year Bund re-opening auction.
FX Daily Strategist: Europe
US data upsets the risk apple-cart, raising stakes for today’s IS While perhaps a little early to conclude that the trend of stronger US data has been broken, yesterday’s weaker than expected prints caused enough concern to upset the ‘risk on’ mood. Aside from an ‘as expected’ Q4 Employment Cost index, the S&P Case-Schiller house […]
UBS Morning Adviser Europe
The price action overnight was largely driven by a better-than-expected China PMI which gave AUD a modest but temporary boost. The euro meanwhile remained under downward pressure as investors digested yesterday’s news reports suggesting Greece is resisting further austerity measures to bring debt down to sustainable levels, and that negotiations on this front are likely […]