Monthly Archives: January 2012
FX Daily Strategist: Europe
EUR holds onto yesterday’s gains despite setback on a PSI+ deal Yesterday’s meeting of finance ministers failed to bring a resolution to the PSI discussions as Eurozone officials late on Monday formally rejected the Greek PSI offer on the basis of the coupon being offered.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook : Is a reversal of euro outflows underway?
EUR USD (1.3000) Yesterday morning the euro started the day with clear indications that negotiations on Greek PSI are heading for an impasse. During the day it shrugged off the official confirmation about the Greek stalemate and continued firming up.
Asian Market Summary
Regional markets are mostly higher amid optimism over a Greek debt-restructuring plan, though trade is tepid as markets in China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam remain closed for the Lunar New Year holiday.
CRUDE OIL ANALYSIS
Nymex WTI crude prices headed higher yesterday as some risk appetite returned and euro-dollar and gold both headed higher. Calls from European leaders to bolster the ESM and EFSF led the move, but the main driver appears to have been the agreement in Brussels of the EU oil import embargo on Iran as traders factored […]
AUD/USD ANALYSIS
Opened in Asia at $1.0525 after highs of $1.0573 yesterday afternoon and largely tracked the EUR/USD this morning with an early high of $1.0535. The pair headed lower as S&P downgraded 4 French banks in the wake of the sovereign downgrade on Jan13.
USD/JPY ANALYSIS
USD/JPY opened at Y77.02 and managed a paltry Y76.96-Y77.05 range, continuing to be boxed by trailing bids from Y76.90 to Y76.50, with offers from Y77.10 up to Y77.40. Stops are seen down through Y76.50 and above Y77.40.
UBS Morning Adviser Asia
Euro Breaches 1.30 The euro settled above 1.30 during the US session as investors remain hopeful of a settlement on the Greek PSI. However, reports remain conflicting – a finance ministry source noted that there will be a final offer on the bond swap by February 13th, and the Eurogroup said that current talks on […]
Technical Week Ahead
EUR/USD – Correcting the stretch (1.3145-1.3260 before down?) GBP/USD – Large “Head & shoulders”/”Round-top” still in play NZDUSD – Indicators favor the long side: Buy-on-dips
NZD in favor and risk appetite finally on the rise
Main conclusions SEB RAI has broken out of its previous range and looks technically set for still higher levels. AUD, CAD, EUR & NZD speculative presence are running at high levels while speculators still seem reluctant to take bets on the GBP.
USD/CAD ANALYSIS
The CAD firmed against a broadly weakening USD as positive sentiment in Europe helped to push the Canadian dollar within one penny of parity. The USD was recently at C$1.0078 Monday, from C$1.0133 late Friday.
CRUDE OIL ANALYSIS
Crude oil futures were modestly higher Monday after the European Union agreed to slap an embargo on oil imports from Iran. Traders said the widely telegraphed move had been largely priced into the market, resulting in a somewhat muted price response.
UBS Morning Adviser America
Eurogroup Meeting Eyed The euro rallied midway through the European morning, following comments from German CDU budget spokesman Barthle. He said that running the EFSF and the ESM in parallel is being discussed within the party. While investors reacted favourably to the comments, this has been suggested on many occasions in the past.