Monthly Archives: January 2012
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Seeing through the transparent Fed
EUR USD (1.3025) Yesterday the euro shrugged off the IMF warnings about global growth and the Greek stalemate and continued to trade in firm territory. The market is again talking about what will be the outcome of the FOMC meeting, where a more transparent Fed is likely to reveal its assessment of the economic situation, […]
GOLD ANALYSIS
Some profit taking yesterday led a small downturn in spot Gold prices with the metal also weighed down by reduced physical demand due to the Asian lunar new year holidays and easing crude oil prices.
CRUDE OIL ANALYSIS
Nymex crude prices eased back yesterday with lack of any further developments over Iran, but found some support from talk of some refinery closures. The weekly API data last night reported a massive 7.3 million barrel build in crude inventories over the latest week which was well above analysts expectations but traders remain cautious ahead […]
USD/JPY ANALYSIS
Opened in Asia at Y77.67 having finally broken out of shackles that had kept the pair around Y77.00 for so long. NY markets extended gains in Europe to highs of Y77.86, as the pair continue to see strong leveraged demand throughout the day, and the move buoyed by a WSJ article that reported Japan’s first […]
AUD/USD ANALYSIS
Opened in Asia at $1.0488 after lows of $1.0428 in NY, as fears of a non-agreement in the Greek debt swap weighed heavily on the EUR. Central bank and real money demand then led a euro recovery which hauled AUD back up.
NZD ANALYSIS
The NZD was trading slightly higher late Wednesday but its gains were capped toward the end of the New Zealand session as investors picked the AUD over the Kiwi. The AUD rallied after data released earlier in the day showed Australia’s 2011 fourth-quarter trimmed mean consumer price index gained 0.6%, which suggested to some in […]
UBS Morning Adviser Asia
Fed On The Horizon Risk assets gave back some of their recent gains on Tuesday ahead of a busy day of data releases. There were few developments on Greece, following the conclusion of Mondays monthly finance minister meeting, although the continued uncertainty is likely to keep investors cautious.
Currency Strategy
Small and sound supersede size For the past two years, our long-term outlook has been focused on fundamentals as being the most important driver for currencies. The intensification of the euro crisis last summer made undervalued (fundamentally weak) currencies appreciate temporarily.
JPY ANALYSIS
The run-up in USD/JPY, above its 55-day (Y77.40) for the first time since Dec 30, is not a complete surprise. CFTC data, as per Friday, for positions as of Jan 17, showed that speculative accounts had a net yen long of +58,862 contracts, vs the prior week’s net long of +59,657 contracts, which was the […]
UBS Morning Adviser America
Strong Eurozone PMIs There were few developments on Greece, following the conclusion of last night’s monthly finance minister meeting. Finance Minister Venizelos said he expects to conclude a PSI deal in the next few days and has a green light from the Eurogroup to do so.
Technical Analysis
USD index is entering a stronger support area… EURUSD added a bullish engulfing candle as a continuation print, but with plenty resistance above extension north is not a done deal… GBPUSD on the other hand added a potentially bearish “Doji” just below thick resistance which could be the harbinger for a fresh bout of pound […]
UBS Morning Adviser Europe
Ministers Reject Tentative Bond Plan Eurozone finance ministers concluded their regular monthly meeting overnight. Most notably, the ministers rejected the tentative deal already struck provisionally between Greece and the IIF on the terms of the upcoming bond swap.