Monthly Archives: January 2012
CRUDE OIL ANALYSIS
Nymex crude prices bounced higher yesterday after falling ahead of the FOMC. The announcement that interest rates would be held down close to zero until 2014 at the earliest, and the spectre of QE3 as early as next month, led a huge risk rally which undid the slide in euro and gold following a raft […]
AUD/USD ANALYSIS
Opened in Asia at $1.0597 after a strong recovery from NY lows of $1.0444 back to $1.0620 following the strong risk rally after the FOMC pledged continued low rates until 2014 and the likelihood that QE3 was just round the corner.
JPY ANALYSIS
Opened in Asia at Y77.78 after falling back from NY highs of Y78.28, The FOMC brought risk back on to the table as Fed’s Bernanke pledged low rates remaining until 2014 and raised fears of further QE as soon as February which sparked a massive risk rally in the EUR and Gold.
NZD ANALYSIS
The NZD was higher against the USD late Thursday, though below intraday highs, aided by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s announcement that it will keep interest rates exceptionally low until at least 2014.
Korea: outlook for growth is improving
· In our view, growth has bottomed in Korea. In H1 12, the risks are tilted towards GDP growth accelerating towards 4% y/y versus Bloomberg consensus estimate of 3.6%. · We maintain our view that Bank of Korea will remain on hold in H1 12.
UBS Morning Adviser Asia
Fed On Hold For Longer The FOMC surprised markets by first pledging to leave rates on hold until late 2014 and secondly committing to an explicit inflation target. The Fed will target the y/y change of core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) at 2%, moving away from the previous informal target range of around 1.7% to […]
FOMC extends dovish forecasts
The FOMC forecast that rates expected to stay at exceptionally low rates “through at least late 2014”. But does that mean anything for this market’s unbearably short attention span? My lowdown: this is a more dovish statement than I expected and I fail to understand why the Fed wants to put itself in a box […]
CRUDE OIL ANALYSIS
Crude futures prices fell Wednesday as investors position ahead of a weekly government report that is expected to show an increase in U.S. oil stockpiles. Light, sweet crude for March delivery recently traded 55 cents, or 0.6%, lower at $98.40 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
UBS Morning Adviser America
Dollar Bid Into FOMC The dollar gained across the board in the European session as investors geared up for the monthly FOMC meeting. Despite a strong German IFO print, the euro dropped one big figure, a further indication that the recent risk rally is losing some steam.
European Market Analysis
The JPY sank Wednesday to its lowest levels so far this year against the USD, EUR and GBP after Japan posted a trade deficit for the first time since 1980, while the euro slipped back below $1.30 against the buck in the absence of fresh news on Greek debt talks.
Technical Analysis
EUR/USD – sandwiched USD/JPY – sleeping beauty waking up AUD/USD – buyers keep responding EUR/SEK – high session close EUR/NOK – strong buyers’ response
UBS Morning Adviser Europe
USDJPY Firm Into FOMC USDJPY continued to march higher during the Asia session despite domestic Japanese exporters selling into the rally. The move got underway during the US session yesterday, likely in anticipation of a significantly less-dovish Fed.