Monthly Archives: January 2012
UBS Morning Adviser Asia
First 2012 EU Summit Convenes The European Union opens its first summit of 2012 on Monday. Although no one has billed it as the meeting which could determine the fate of the euro, in our view there is very little room for complacency as buoyant markets could turn on the first sight of slip-ups.
Greece: “The negotiations are not easy…”
Greece will need to take further steps to fix its public finances and overhaul its economy in exchange for a new multi-billion euro rescue package, the country’s prime minister warned Sunday, but added that Greece’s political leaders are united behind the effort.
US GDP: The Real Story
The subpar recovery that concluded in the third quarter of 2011 has been succeeded by the subpar expansion. Real GDP rose at an annual rate of just 2.8% in the fourth quarter, about enough to maintain the slow decline in the unemployment rate, but not nearly sufficient to restore the economy to full employment, according […]
US FX Market Summary
The euro rose to a six-week high Friday as investors became more optimistic that Greece and its private-sector creditors would reach an agreement. Reports on the progress of the talks, including a comment on Friday by Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos that Greece was one step away from concluding a deal on the EUR100 billion ($132 […]
BUND ANALYSIS
German government bonds are mixed Friday with the yield curve flatter on duration extension buying, according to traders. Bunds opened higher on weaker European stocks open amid a continuing impasse over Greek debt swap talks.
UBS Morning Adviser America
US GDP Eyed Market focus will remain on the US on Friday, with the fourth quarter GDP, Michigan confidence and the quarterly Core PCE data is due. Our US economists are in line with consensus, looking for a rise to 3.0% q/q on the GDP print, a further sign of the relative out performance of […]
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook : Fed inflation target is just right for dollar bulls
EUR USD (1.3110) The intellectual debate on the Fed’s new inflation target began in earnest yesterday, led by Paul Krugman who insisted that two percent was too low. For inflating away debts quickly, this is certainly the case.
UniCredit EEMEA Daily
News HU: Positive – AKK sells higher than expected amount at HGB auction amid strong demand HU: Negative – Fidesz Deputy Chairman Kosa says govt is unlikely to change the flat tax despite IMF request
GBP/USD ANALYSIS
Closed in NY at $1.5690, after pulling back from extended highs of $1.5735 to $1.5669. Rate initially edged higher in Asia, marking a recovery high at $1.5698 before turning lower as yen crosses came under pressure into the Tokyo fix.
FX Market Technical Research
EUR/USD has charted a ‘Doji’ at 1.3184, this marks indecision just ahead of our corrective target of 1.3200/50, and suggests to us that the correction higher that has been in place since the 16th January is likely to be over. We are unable to rule out a move to the 1.3245/50 zone (38.2% retracement of […]
UBS Morning Adviser Europe
The USDJPY rally that began three days ago reversed completely overnight. Falling US Treasury yields in the aftermath of the dovish FOMC meeting were to blame. USDJPY had been following gradually ever since, and fresh long positions put on just ahead of the meeting finally had their stops triggered overnight. RBNZ Governor Bollard provided some […]
EUR/USD ANALYSIS
Closed in NY at $1.3105, after recovering off pullback lows of $1.3095, after rate had been pressed down from extended post FOMC highs of $1.3184. Yen crosses came under pressure into the Tokyo fix, the pressure from this action extending EUR/USD pullback lows to $1.3077 before demand emerged ahead of reported bids placed at $1.3070. […]