Monthly Archives: January 2012
UBS Morning Adviser America
Caution Into EU Summit The first EU Summit of 2012 has been greeted with a decidedly less optimistic tone than last week. After Fitch downgraded five Eurozone sovereigns on Friday night, the Italian treasury sold a total of EUR 7.5 bn worth of bonds, near the top of estimates.
FX Daily Strategist: Europe
EURUSD squeeze continues into weekend but Greek obstacles weigh at the start of the week The FOMC-inspired rally held its ground through Friday as US Q4 GDP came in on the soft side and in the absence of hard news headlines out of Europe; short covering and an evident desire to be long into the […]
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook : The euro rally remains puzzling
EUR USD (1.3175) Although the euro has now completed a fortnight of impressive strength, traders can find little positive to say about it. In the headlines are, for example, the rising Portuguese yields, which reportedly indicate that investors are getting nervous about the losses they might have to take if Portugal gets the second bailout.
Technical Analysis
More general dollar weakness emerged Friday (contrary to our view of a potential end to the EURUSD reaction). The JPY strength accross the board, CABLE coming close to its key resistance in the 1.57’s, EURSEK closed bullishly above 8.9050 buy the dips for 8.98/99,
GBP/USD Analysis
Closed in NY at $1.5730, off NY recovery highs of $1.5740, and initially edged to $1.5737 into early Asian trade as rate tracked the early mark up in EUR/USD. Rate reversed off highs into the main Asian session, the rate easing through the balance of the session to a session low of $1.5702.
GOLD Analysis
Spot gold made strong gains last week with the moved spurred by the FOMC meeting with the Fed pledging to keep interest rates very low until 2014, and expectations heightening of another round of QE.
EUR/USD Analysis
Closed in NY at $1.3219, after rate saw an aggressive recovery rally through the afternoon session off pullback lows of $1.3093 to $1.3235. Rate picked up fresh demand into early Auckland trade Monday, as market reacted positively to weekend reports in the WSJ suggesting the Greek debt deal with its private investors was close to […]
FX Market Technical Research
EUR/USD has reached its initial corrective target of 1.3245/50, the 38.2% retracement of the move down from November. We would ideally like to see failure here, this is our initial corrective target/measurement and automatic Elliot wave count, but acknowledge that while above the near term uptrend at 1.3072 the market remains bid.
UBS Morning Adviser Europe
Italian Auction Ahead Fitch downgraded five Eurozone sovereigns on Friday night shortly after Eurozone bond markets had closed. Italy, Spain, Slovenia were cut two notches each, while Belgium and Cyprus dropped one notch apiece.
CRUDE OIL Analysis
Nymex crude oil prices slipped back on Friday in relatively calm trade into the weekend. Prices failed to close the week above the $100 level but remain firm in the light of refinery disruptions and a possible retaliation to the EU’s decision to embargo Iranian imports from July1.
AUD/USD Analysis
Opened in Sydney with a small gap down to $1.0641 from a NY close of $1.0657. Weekend comments from Germany’s Schaeuble and Germany’s recommendation for an appointment of a European” budget commissioner” led to a sell-off in EUR/USD which along with profit taking in AUD crosses, a lower Yuan fix and a falling Shanghai composite, […]
USD/JPY Analysis
Opened in Asia at Y76.68 and remains under pressure after last Wednesday’s bounce to Y78.28 had been completely undone into the weekend. Friday’s weak GDP report and expectations of further QE from the Fed causing the damage.