Monthly Archives: January 2012
FX Daily Strategist: Europe
EUR short covering rally gathers momentum, but SEK and NOK the G10 stars Thursday ostensibly counts as another positive day for risk, but was hardly convincing in this role, with US equities posting only minor gains into the close. NZD and AUD failed to retrace all of their falls post CPI and employment data respectively, […]
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook : Where is the argument?
EUR USD (1.2965) Television cameras were in the debt management office of the French Treasury during yesterday’s auction of five-year paper. The managers struggled to control their delight at the robust demand and at the yields, which were almost 100bp lower than last November.
UniCredit EEMEA Daily
News RO: Positive – MinFin sold RON 436mn 5Y T-Bonds: avg. yield 7%, bid/cover 3.2 (p2) PL: Hawkish – Dec IP rose by 7.7% yoy / Dec PPI came in at 8.1% yoy (p2)
UBS Morning Adviser Europe
Euro Holds Gains EURUSD consolidated its recent gains overnight and pushed to a new two-week high, trading in a 1.2929-1.2973 range. The latest China Flash PMI for January was benign and not market-moving. The triggers for the latest bout of euro strength are clear: Spanish and French auctions were taken favorably by the markets.
Technical Analysis
Euro short covering continued to dominate the scene also yesterday (Spec pos short euro trimming?). Dollar index eyeing the 79.00/50 buy area, rechecking and validating its neckline, EURSEK continues to trade lower and is eyeing the 2011 low 8.6990,
GBP/USD ANALYSIS
Closed in NY at its range highs of $1.5490, with rate holding gains into Asia, extending the topside to $1.5497 but strong resistance toward $1.5500 capped upside progress. Rate traded the overnight session within a tight $1.5478/97 range, opening Europe around $1.5490.
EUR/USD ANALYSIS
Closed in NY at $1.2965, the rate having extended its recent rally to $1.2972 through the US afternoon. Rate moved higher again into early Asia, pushing up to mark highs at $1.2973 before settling above $1.2954 through the balance of the session.
GOLD ANALYSIS
Spot Gold prices eased back marginally yesterday as some profit taking emerged after the metal hit week’s highs of $1670.25 in Europe. The metal opened in Asia at $1660 building higher on some risk on sentiment ahead of Spanish and French bond auctions, where the market pre-empted the strong demand.
EUR consolidates gains; Risk still looking buoyant
The last trading session before most of Asia disappears for the extended Lunar New Year holidays was a quiet affair though Asian bourses put in a strong showing and risk generally consolidated yesterday’s up-move.
CRUDE OIL ANALYSIS
Nymex crude prices fell back yesterday despite some strong EIA data which beat analysts expectations. The report came in with a draw of 3.44mmbl which was in strong contrast to analysts forecast of a 3mmbl build, but this failed to impress with traders noting weak import demand and refinery utilization.
AUD/USD ANALYSIS
The AUD/USD appears content to gravitate around the 200 day MA which currently lies around $1.0409. The pair continues to lag the EUR/USD rally as the cross recovers from record lows of A$1.2228 seen on Tuesday.
USD/JPY ANALYSIS
USD/JPY was content to consolidate yesterday’s gains holding above Y77.00 in a tight Y77.06-21 range after opening the session at Y77.11. Some demand was seen into the Tokyo fixing with an early move to Y77.17 before easing to the lows.