Monthly Archives: January 2012
UBS Morning Adviser America
Euro Grinds Higher The euro traded above 1.32 on Tuesday while other risk assets squeezed higher. While there are some inevitable month-end related rebalancing flows, investors have reacted favourably to last night’s EU summit. In French President Sarkozy’s words, the summit ‘went as planned’.
FX Daily Strategist: Europe
EU Summit passes without reaction, focus remains on prospects for Greek PSI+ agreement Yesterday’s EU Summit – the 16th of the last two years – did little to boost confidence. The focus was on agreeing the terms of the new European fiscal pact – and in this 25 of 27 EU nations have signed up […]
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook : EU summit delivers, but fails to impact
EUR USD (1.3185) For some investors the latest EU summit disappointed in as much as it failed to top the €500bn ESM with more resources. To the extent that the summit delivered a ‘fiscal compact’ which can be a basis for further discussions on expanding the rescue vehicles, it is seen in a positive light.
Technical Analysis
Yesterday’s bearish EURUSD print is already questioned today, but over 1.3245 is needed to lift the (correctional) sight to the 1.34s… USDJPY is lower with lower US yields and may continue towards the Oct’11 75.30 low if/when US yields continue lower…
UniCredit EEMEA Daily
News BG: Neutral – Economic sentiments surge 3.3pp mom in January; PPI down 0.6% mom (p2) BG: Neutral – NBK to maintain current monetary policy framework (p2) RO: Negative – Local press reports that coalition parties will try to hike wages and pensions by “at most 5% if economic growth is in the 1.8%-2.3% range […]
UBS Morning Adviser Europe
Focus On Next LTRO Risk appetite was boosted overnight by an article in the Financial Times claiming that the ECB’s next 3y LTRO (due on Feb 29) could see demand for up to EUR1 trn in cash, double the previous amount.
GOLD Analysis
Spot gold prices gave back marginal gains yesterday as the market lost risk appetite over delays in the Greek debt swap decision and widening spreads in the peripheral EU debt market, particularly in Portugal.
CRUDE OIL Analysis
Nymex crude prices fell back yesterday amid EU concerns over the ongoing delay to the Greek debt swap conclusion, weakening bond markets and jitters from the bulls who remain cautious despite latest CFTC data suggesting money managers boosted net longs by 8.29% over the latest week.
USD/JPY Analysis
Opened in Asia at Y76.34 and saw some month-end demand into the fixing which lifted the pair to Y76.42 and dragged up the other JPY crosses. Demand then ebbed for the USD again and the pair headed lower again through the NY lows of Y76.21 to Y76.18, but any stops that we reportedly set on […]
AUD/USD Analysis
Opened at $1.0594 in Asia after lows in NY of $1.0527 as market risk sentiment wilted on Greek debt delays and widening Portuguese debt yields. However equity markets then rallied from earlier falls and real money demand led a solid recovery back into the close.
UBS Morning Adviser Asia
No Surprises From Brussels There were no major surprises out of Monday’s Eurozone summit. In French President Sarkozy’s words, the summit ‘went as planned’. However, this also means that there weren’t any positive surprises to offer to the markets, which may lead to further disappointments upon the Asia open.
US FX Market Summary
The JPY surged to its strongest level in nearly five months against the dollar and rose more than 1% against the EUR Monday, as investors fleeing Europe’s debt crisis took shelter in Japan’s currency despite warnings from policymakers that yen strength was unwarranted.