Monthly Archives: October 2011
US September Employment: Avoiding a recession?
September nonfarm payrolls rose by 103,000, compared to a consensus estimate of +60,000. Both July and August payrolls were revised higher: the combined net revision was +99,000. The September unemployment rate was unchanged at 9.1%. These results will help allay near-term fears that the US economy is entering a recession.
CEEMEA trade: CZK – safe but cyclical, add long EUR/CZK
We have been positive on the Czech Republic since the beginning of August via FX unhedged long CZGBs. The main reason for our bullish stance was the regional safe heaven status and very solid fundamental backdrop.
TRY: Time to buy
The lira depreciation now appears excessive The combination of central bank policy and the reduction in external imbalances should lead to a stronger currency USD-TRY may move back to 1.70
HSBC: Currencies: Technical Analysis: Winner winner chicken dinner
Asian sentiment is quite depressed. But evidence from the relative performance of Macau casino stocks suggests that at least an interim low in Asian equity indices is close. The anticipated decline in Asian FX is nearing the end of the first phase and Japanese bond yields continue to provide evidence of being one of the […]
What matters today (Asia edition)
Developed macro 1. Investors’ focus to remain on Eurozone sovereign and banking issues this week as only second-tier macro indicators are expected. Interest rate strategy 1. The 10Y Bund trades at upper end of one-month yield range. Further upside traction limited unless positive news picks up 2. ECB announces bond purchases volume
HSBC MacroBullets – Friday
TOP UK business daily City AM says UK banks set for an up to three-notch downgrade by Moody’s. The downgrade, expected as early as today, will impact 14 banks and building societies, the paper says. City AM said Moody’s refused to confirm the move. {http://bit.ly/nstonV}
David Bloom on NFP
Payrolls…If your feeling scared don’t read this What do you do if payrolls is much weaker. I am concerned for three reasons. 1stly, we look at the challenger data, which has a strong relationship with payrolls. It is most likely exaggerating (payrolls will not fall 500K) but does indicate downside risk.
UniCredit EEMEA Daily
News HU: Mixed – August IP falls 0.4% (p2) TK: Negative – CBT Survey of Expectations shows inflation expectations rise to 7.5% from 7.3% for YE2011 (p2)
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Trichet sets stage for Draghi rate cut
EUR/USD (1.3430) Expectations of an immediate ECB rate cut were trimmed in the hours that preceded yesterday’s rate-setting meeting. As suspected, traders considered any inaction as negative for growth and, by extension, negative for the euro.
European FX Daily – US non-farm payrolls today
– The INR and AUD lead modest rally vs USD, Asian equities up 0.5-3.0% – German industrial output likely to fall in August – A weak US non-farm payroll is likely to renew growth concerns
Global Technical Watch – Quick Charts (Oct 7)
Heading into NFP, the outlook for equities continues to improve. The recent outperformance of the DAX and CAC40 against the S&P 500 has been impressive and both these markets appear to be on the verge of completing basing patterns.
Technical Analysis – FX Daily Majors
Today’s highlights: EUR/USD: Bear gap closed and a bullish “outside” pattern aims for a better base through 13-day EMA, 1.3483, with the trend line key at 1.3525. The latter is needed for a firmer base GBP/USD: Neutral “outside” Thursday after “inside” Wednesday underscores indecision. Probe below key 1.5296 swing low leaves October risk lower to […]