Monthly Archives: October 2011
Turkey watchers
Turkey’s current account deficit came out in line with expectations at about USD4.0bn in August. The deficit was at 5.3bn in July. Compared to August last year, the deficit is up 30% but the important point is that there is a clear slowdown in the pace.
Technical Analysis: Technical Alert: Europhoria boosts risk appetite – but will it last?
EURUSD and other USD pairs may extend the recent move somewhat, but dollar weakness is likely still just a patch… 1.3937 is key in EURUSD and first support is found at 1.3525…
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: Asia – 11 October 2011
Merkel-Sarkozy assurances taken at face value, EUR shorts continue to cover…….. The DXY version of the dollar index lost some 1.5% Monday and US equities posted their strongest one-day gain since August 23rd. This was after the market chose to take at face value assurance from French President Sarkozy that he and German Chancellor Merkel […]
What matters today (Asia edition)
Developed macro 1. The result of the Slovakian vote on EFSF 2.0 remains uncertain as the SAS party has continued to reject agreement 2. UK industrial production set to contract in August 3. Japan’s current account surplus narrowed in August
FX Intraday Comment – Markets squeezed but watch Slovakia
Heading into last weekend markets knew Merkel and Sarkozy would meet on Sunday to discuss the G20 leaders’ summit in Cannes scheduled for 3-4 November. It seemed reasonable to assume the duo – who have held regular meetings in recent months – would not come up with anything specific on a meeting three weeks away.
Russia flows and eod
Despite expected quiet day and thin market, we got the latter but definitely not the former. RUB rallies 2% vs USD and 1% vs fx basket (backed by strong EUR) and rates enjoy further rally of 10-20 bps.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Eurozone crisis gets an expiry date
EUR/USD (1.3455) Heartened by better-than-expected US employment data, traders pushed the euro to a short-lived spike on Friday. But the realisation soon settled in that moderate US employment gains look positive as they stem from tepid expectations.
Merkel and Sarkozy call for ‘durable’ solution for Greece, but fail to agree on the specifics of bank recapitalisation
There is growing evidence that the deal for Greece reached in July is unravelling. On Sunday, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble told Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung that euro governments may have come up short on the scale of Greek debt writedowns when they reached the agreement in July.
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: Europe – 10 October 2011
Fitch pulls the rug from payrolls rally; Merkel-Sarkozy delivers little, but tone sees market retain optimism: A better than expected September US payrolls report took risk up and the dollar further down Friday, EURUSD making a new weekly high above 1.3500, only for the move to be more than reversed by Fitch’s ratings actions against […]
Technical Analysis: Technical Alert
Key question for the week; extending or ending the corrections? Many markets have arrived or are close to arriving at primary correction targets hence the need of monitoring them more closely.
Asia Strategy Focus: Sell USDSGD at 1.31, MAS not in crisis mode and won’t move to neutral mode
We recommend selling USDSGD at 1.31 with a take profit target of 1.264 and stop loss at 1.323. We look for this trade recommendation to materialise over the next few weeks. USDSGD will fall due to our counter-consensus view on this weeks’ MAS monetary policy meeting and potential upside surprises to macro data releases in […]
European FX Daily – Week Ahead in FX
– KRW and EUR lead modest rally vs USD, Asian equities mixed – Germany and France pledge plans to stabilize Europe by end-October – EFSF progress in focus – US retail sales growth expected to accelerate – MAS likely to ease SGD appreciation, BoK and BI to remain on hold