Monthly Archives: October 2011
JPM FX Techs: Sydney/Asia Open
At a glance: The risk trade accelerated higher yesterday as the USD extended through the next line of key support levels. As the price action continues to demonstrate a bullish trending bias, note that we see a very important test for equities with the S&P approaching the 1220/1230 resistance zone and August/September range highs.
Russia flows and eod
Good rally in FX RUB, which ends the day 1.4% stronger vs USD and 0.95% vs FX basket (31.10 and 36.43 respectively). Despite o/n coming back to 4.5% level (yday 6.0% spike was caused by local bank in need to cover unexpected funding) and rates sell-off on stronger RUB – we saw good bids coming […]
HSBC Macrobullets – Wednesday 11 October 2011
TOP The US senate has passed the currency bill 63-35. Passage at this stage was highly expected, but all indications are that it is unlikely to either pass the House, or the White house. HSBC write up {http://bit.ly/pGIg11} and {http://bit.ly/qa5unx} Slovakia’s opposition leader said lawmakers must find a way to approve the EFSF enhancement which […]
Technical Analysis: Technical Alert: Correctional forces still simmering
If the recent counter-trend moves are corrections – as we think they are – they are running late now with notable overhead resistance in both SP500 & EuroStoxx50 to consider… EURUSD could still score – over 1.3699 would target 1.3765, but another upside attempt is NOT a done deal…
Daily Economic Briefing: October 11, 2011
Global data summary Recognition that G-4 growth is set to be weak at best, combined with the recent tightening of EM domestic financial conditions, has prompted some unexpected policy easing in the emerging economies. So far the moves have been limited to a handful of countries and pretty modest, consistent with our view that EM […]
What matters today (Asia edition)
Developed macro 1. The EU, IMF and ECB inspectors have completed the review on Greece paving the way for the EUR8bn tranche to Greece to be released early November. 2. The Slovakian vote on the enhanced EFSF has been delayed to later this week
JPM FX Techs: Sydney/Asia Open
At a glance: A mixed day for the USD as prices finally consolidated after testing the next line of important support levels. Still, the reversal in the USD from last week’s highs suggests an increased risk that a deeper retracement is underway particularly with equities maintaining the bullish shift from last week’s lows.
Americas FX Daily – USD regains ground ahead of EFSF vote
What happened overnight – Slovakian coalition party says it will not support EFSF enhancement – UK manufacturing production weaker than expected – Sweden CPI below consensus forecast
Daily FX Technical Strategy – Range highs under pressure
The risk revival gained traction yesterday. Activity was greater than we were expecting as some markets, like rates, broke decisively lower. As the European equity markets approach their recent range highs and the breakout levels above, the going is likely to get tougher for the risk revival.
Technical Analysis – FX Daily Majors
Today’s highlights: EUR/USD: Decisive upside breakout leaves risk higher for the week, but today we expect some consolidation back to throwback/trend support placed at 1.3525. GBP/USD: Market remains under pressure, with the focus remaining on the key support cluster at 76.16/11/75.95.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Expectations, if not rational, are high
EUR/USD (1.3625) If the euro is to survive, the eurozone must work out a fiscal union, according to the two newest Nobel economics laureates on Monday. Based on the rational expectations theory, Christopher Sims and Thomas Sargent recognise that government spending is less effective when people see limits to public financing and eventually expect the […]
UniCredit EEMEA Daily
News CZ: Positive – CPI dips 0.2% mom in September / Positive – September unemployment falls 0.2%-points to 8.0% (p2) KZ: Positive – PM posted on tweeter that real GDP growth was 7.0% yoy in Jan-September (p2) PL: Positive – Election results show strong support for the Civic Platform (p2) RO: Negative – MinFin issues […]