Monthly Archives: October 2011
What matters today (Asia edition)
Developed macro 1. Germany denies markets’ hopes on the possibility of rapid resolution of the European debt crisis 2. Expectations are for relatively resilient German ZEW business confidence index in October 3. UK CPI inflation to edge higher in September largely due to substantial hikes in utilities prices
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: US – 17 Oct 2011
Eurozone optimism to be tested ahead of Sunday EU Summit The risk rally from last week continued into the Asian session with the G20 weekend meeting promoting expectations of a concrete plans to be put in place at the EU Summit on 23 October on the leveraging of the EFSF, European bank recapitalisations and details […]
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Euro rally fails to convince the bears
EUR/USD (1.3840) An ebullient euro, which has risen 5.6% just this month alone, was projected higher as shorts were squeezed on Friday. The move has left many market participants unprepared.
FX Strategy Flash: USDJPY – Short from Y77.40
– Find attached two previously published FX Strategy pieces related to USDJPY and authored by Rob Ryan – The first, originally published on Sep 8 (‘On the Floor in Japan’) includes a discussion of why we believe it is totally wrong to expect the BoJ to attempt to mimic the SNB’s September actions is setting […]
Global Technical Watch – Quick Charts
A sharp positioning squeeze has driven EUR/USD back to the previous range lows at 1.3840, and AUD/USD is also approaching a confluence of resistance at its 200-day average and three-month channel high.
UK unemployment rise has no silver lining
The rise in the unemployment rate to 8.1% that was reported yesterday is unlikely to be the last of the bad news from the labour market. We think there are good reasons to expect unemployment to rise further.
UBS Spot Desk Look For A Dollar Bounce
EURUSD ran higher in New York Wednesday, but held ahead of 1.3838-44 resistance, printing a high of 1.3834 before falling away half a figure.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Stock market rally a boon for the eurozone crisis
EUR/USD (1.3805) Market commentators are using the promise by the Slovak opposition to vote in favour for the EFSF as an explanation for the huge risk appetite in the markets yesterday. This is puzzling, as no one ever doubted it.
UniCredit EEMEA Daily
News BG: Neutral – CPI slows to 3.3% yoy, flat mom (p2) CZ: Neutral – FinMin M. Kalousek says this year’s public sector deficit will end up below 4% of GDP (p2) PL: Neutral – At the switch tender MinFin bought back PLN 0.8bn DZ1111, PLN 1.2bn OK0112 and PLN 0.8bn PS0412 against PLN 3.2bn […]
Australia: Employment surprises to the upside in September
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES (MONTHLY CHANGE) Employment increased 20,400 (0.2%) to 11,451,200. Full-time employment increased 10,800 persons to 8,044,200, and part-time employment increased 9,600 persons to 3,407,100. Unemployment decreased 3,800 (0.6%) to 634,200. The number of persons looking for full-time work decreased 6,200 to 453,100, and the number of persons looking for part-time work increased 2,400 […]
Technical Analysis: Technical Alert – Corrections ending?
Interesting times ahead. Most asset classes now into their potential target zones hence the risk of at least a temporary setback must be regarded very high.
FOMC Minutes: QE Kept in Reserve in Case of Further Weaknes
The bottom line from the Minutes of the FOMC meeting on 20-21 September 2011, is that Operation Twist was regarded by the majority of members of the Committee as the most measured response to the deterioration in the economic outlook and that QE is being kept in reserve in case conditions weaken more markedly because […]