Monthly Archives: October 2011
Technical Analysis – FX Daily Majors
Today’s highlights: EUR/USD: Topping bias intact and reinforced by indecisive breach of trend support, but through 1.3653 needed to confirm a more defensive tone for 1.3565 USD/CHF: Bearish trend line reversal and chart support erosion points to .78968/748 into next week
EUR/USD’s setback from 1.3915 may be a pause in a ST rise
EUR/USD EUR/USD may be consolidating its recent bounce on 1.3145 before rising back to Monday’s high of 1.3915, or even to higher levels. That said, it does not mean that the MT outlook has turned bullish.
Daily FX Technical Strategy – Safe haven for the weekend?
Event risk at the weekend is dominating FX trading but the uncertainty is keeping many of the major markets range bound. In the background the outlook for risk generally is slowly deteriorating and as it does demand for the CHF appears to be picking up once again.
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: Asia – 21 October 2011
EURUSD ends flat after another day in the EZ-headline tumble dryer There seems to be no end to the euro zone headline-driven buffeting being inflicted on the spot FX market, but somewhat fitting that EURUSD ended the NY trading day little changed from where it opened in Asia – as too US stocks.
FX Strategist – Weekly Update: revisiting the yen – please recycle
With most currency pairs in limbo awaiting the results of the weekend summit in Europe, we turn our attention to the JPY, which has been somewhat sidelined in recent weeks.
JPM FX Techs: Sydney/Asia Open
At a glance: Another choppy session as the market maintains the two-sided bias. While the action continues to be driven by headlines, the key levels remain well-defined as we approach the weekend events.
UBS Spot Desk EURUSD Surges. Don’t Ask.
EURUSD opened in Europe Thursday around 1.3690, precisely where it was at the European close Tuesday. This is not surprising, as Wednesday’s trip up to 1.3870 was unsupported by the positioning and exposures we have been monitoring.
UK retail sales – strong monthly data mask weak underlying conditions
Retail sales were much stronger than expected in September, with sales volumes increasing by 0.6% m/m in September (BarCap: 0.1%, consensus: 0.0%) after falling by a downwardly revised 0.4% the previous month.
HSBC: Currencies: Technical Analysis: Aussie facing resistance
AUD-USD cannot rise above resistance and the probabilities favour a down move. Gold is starting its next leg lower, Gilts and Bunds should fall and the S&P 500 is exhibiting near term uptrend exhaustion.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Euro counts down to EU summit
EUR/USD (1.3725) Leveraging the EFSF to stem debt contagion involves potential political and economic costs which are the point of contention at the EU weekend summit. While France supports the idea of turning EFSF into a bank that could tap the ECB, Germany endorses enabling the EFSF to insure a part of peripheral euro debt.
UniCredit EEMEA Daily
News CZ: Neutral – MinFin sells CZK 7.5bn CZGB VAR/23 (CZK 8bn on offer): bid/cover 1.54, yield 12M PRIBOR + 49.5bp (p2) LV: Positive – President names Valdis Dombrovskis as new PM (p2) PL: Mixed – September IP growth slows to 7.7% yoy, PPI accelerates to 8.1% yoy / new 5y POLGB bmrk sees very […]
FX Techs: London Open
At a glance: Recovery seen as unsustainable Better than expected industrial production figures in European periphery-countries and hopes of additional support via this weekends EU summit have provided a positive market sentiment in the ongoing recovery.