Monthly Archives: October 2011
UniCredit EEMEA Daily
News BG: Neutral – Ruling CEDB party consolidates power after the first round of presidential and municipal elections (p2) PL: Mixed – FinMin J. Rostowski said that any adjustments to the 2012 budget assumptions will depend on the effectiveness of EFSF (p2) TK: Mixed – September Capacity Utilization Rate at 77.0% (p2)
UBS Sales Desk Europe’s Other Deficit
While financial markets remain fixated on the outcome of the EU summit, European data continues to fall short. Yesterday’s new lows for Eurozone flash manufacturing PMI are worrying, particularly with once-booming Germany facing its first sub-50 reading since September 2009.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: ‘Standby’ euro simply reflects dollar weakness
EUR/USD (1.3905) The German Chancellor Merkel has been forcedto put the controversial issue of leveraging the EFSF to one trillioneuros under a full vote in German Bundestag. While the planned Wednesday vote does not really allow time for any serious debate, itdoes serve the markets with a reference point as far as the firepowerof EFSF […]
Australia: RBA Deputy Governor Battellino signals a ‘wait-and-see’ approach
In an address to an Australian and New Zealand investment conference, Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Ric Battellino appeared to signal a “wait-and-see” approach to policy settings.
Technical Analysis: Technical Alert: EUR/USD eyeing resistance. FRA/GER yields widening
The 10y FRA/GER spread is still widening but this is currently overlookd by FX… EURUSD stands just below a thick bundle of resistance points (starting at 1.3968). Near-term action from here will be important for the future.
Overnight Wrap, Orderbook & Flow, $Asia, Levels
1) Overnight Asia Wrap Euro opened in Asia at 1.3930 after highs of 1.3957 in NY, remaining buoyed by optimism of a comprehensive EU package and risk rallies in the equity and oil markets following yesterday’s strong Chinese PMI and US earnings data.
What matters today (Asia edition)
Developed macro 1. The macroeconomic calendar is relatively poor of indicators today. The ECB is conducting a LTRO with 12-month maturity. 2. US: October Consumer Confidence is likely to post a decrease in line with the drop in the October University of Michigan consumer sentiment index.
HSBC: Currencies: Currency Weekly: Sterling’s new-found stability
Trade weighted stability for sterling means that it has become constrained within relatively tight ranges against both USD and EUR, suggesting this is a good time for hedgers to act. Loose monetary policy and tight fiscal policy would usually be a recipe for currency weakness. Why is GBP stable?
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: US Policy response is more pressing than crisis
EUR/USD (1.3885) The latest eurozone headlines suggest that the German model of a revamped EFSF which includes the insurance and guarantee functions may emerge as the eventual solution to the EU debt crisis.
What matters today (Asia edition)
Developed macro 1. All eyes remain on Europe as the EU Summit on Wednesday will be eyed for a concrete resolution to the region’s crisis 2. Eurozone ‘flash’ PMIs to deteriorate further in October, with the services sector set to underperform
Weekly Calendar – The market mood
Risk aversion is no longer declining and markets are on hold waiting for the conclusions from discussions to shore up the Eurozone. In any case, they will have to be patient a little longer than first expected.
Technical Analysis: Technical Alert – Eur still on a positive footing
The common currency still on track for possible somewhat higher levels but we have also entered an area that is clustered with resistance. EUR/USD looking for returning offers once a new high set, USDJPY new historical low on Friday and there’s more to come, USDCAD watching the 1.0044 support with interest,