Monthly Archives: October 2011
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: Europe – 27 October 2011
EU Summit meets expectations allowing EURUSD to break 1.4000 With the EU Summit having ticked most of the boxes in terms of expectations, risk appetite has rallied and the USD has weakened across the board with high beta currencies taking the lead.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: EU secures some ‘breathing space’
EUR/USD (1.3970) Nearly 11 hours of brinkmanship during the Wednesday’s EU summit saw a nervous market react to sketchy details in EU summit headlines and pull the euro down in the European session.
US Economics Digest – FOMC Preview: The Neverending Story
The “Operation Twist” portfolio maturity extension program has only just gotten underway and already more Federal Reserve policy easing is under consideration. The types of additional easing the Fed has been contemplating fall into three broad categories. We discuss the prospects for each option in turn:
What matters today (Asia edition)
Developed macro 1. Markets appear to have prepared for the under-delivery of the EU summit 2. US: Q3 real GDP likely rose 2.5% supported by robust business investment, an increase in consumer spending and improved net exports. 3. There has been a rising expectation that the Bank of Japan will ease.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: UK: Low rates and QE for a long time
EUR/USD (1.3920) The euro slid yesterday on the news that today’s planned meeting of the EU finance ministers had been cancelled and that EU leaders played down prospects of a final plan emerging anytime soon.
Italy: Government reportedly close to agreement on pension reform
According to Maria Stella Gelmini, a government official, PM Berlusconi and Northern League leader Umberto Bossi have agreed on how to raise the retirement age for both men and women woman working in both the private and public sectors.
Time is close for Azumi to crap or get off the pot…
On Monday Azumi stated that 75-76 was a speculative level for the Yen. He’s now revising it higher, and laying the groundwork for another unilateral intervention regardless of G20 rhetoric on market determined prices.
Technical Analysis: Technical Alert: Notable reversals in USDCAD, SP500 & Treasuries
It’s D-Day today (D for debt, D for Decision, D for Derailed?) and markets buckle up… EURUSD & EURJPY hangs below key resistance levels at 1.3968 & 107.75… GBPUSD advance looks cautios and ought to run into trouble no later than at 1.6105\15…
What matters today (Asia edition)
Developed macro 1. Risk appetite took a hit on unexpected cancelation of the EU EcoFin meeting and soft US data 2. Both EU 27 and EU 17 meetings are taking place later today. It is still unclear whether EU leaders will be able to reach a comprehensive agreement today. 3. US: September New Home sales […]
AM/FX : Tick tock tick tock tick tock
As the EU tries to get a plan together ahead of tomorrow’s deadline, markets continue to grind higher, taking out some huge levels in the process. This appears to me to be a seller’s strike in EUR/USD as there are simply no market participants willing to sell euros until the completion of the EU summit.
FX Techs: London Open
At a glance: What crisis? Despite rather mixed figures and the ongoing struggle in the EUR crisis, risk markets and the EUR kept on trading higher, but are now facing much stronger headwinds in the technical picture.
Trade Recommendation: Sell EUR/USD for a minimum decline to 1.2600
The current recovery is seen as an intermediate one only within a broader downtrend, expected to be resumed shortly EUR/USD weekly chart: