Monthly Archives: October 2011
Technical Analysis: Technical Alert – USD surge sets the tone for the day
USDJPY intervention pushed the pair considerably higher. Making the $ index rise sharply whereas the € index remains bid….so a pure $ move it is.
USDJPY intervention. HSBC comment
Japan’s MoF had been warning the market over aggressive JPY moves in recent weeks and decisively pulled the trigger today. The Bank of Japan intervened, near the 75.60 area to an initial high near 79.00 (at the time of writing).
Asia Flash: Blue skies for Asia FX, we are the bulls
In our view, this week will continue to be risk on sentiment in Asia. Tomorrow, China October PMI may print 52 vs. BBG 51.8 and September 51.2. Our leading indicator analysis suggests that China Q4 11 GDP will rise to 9.3-9.5% y/y versus 9.1% in Q3 11.
JPY: Somewhat surprising in terms of timing but decisive intervention
As Japan Finance Minister Azumi confirmed, the Ministry of Finance (MoF) intervened to sell JPY in the Tokyo morning session today, and USD/JPY rose from 75.6 to 79.3 (+4.9%) and EUR/JPY from 107.10 to 111.5 (+4.1%).
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: What are the lessons for the euro?
EUR/USD (1.4165) Many analysts spent yesterday picking apart the latest EU summit deal. They bemoaned the lack of detail; highlighted that the effective size of the Greek haircut was less than the 50 percent headline figure; criticised the likely effectiveness of the Italian debt reduction proposal; and were sceptical about the prospect of a weighty […]
UniCredit EEMEA Daily
News LT: Positive – Sept retail trade growth increases to 20.9% yoy (p2) UA: Mixed – Sept C/A deficit YTD reaches USD 5.5bn, FDI remains high / IMF arrives in Ukraine this week (p2)
HSBC: Currencies: Technical Analysis: Copper collapse to continue
Copper should hit new lows in coming weeks. The wave down from the summer high is not yet complete and this barometer of economic strength is signalling continued pressure on “risk”. Gold is about to break much lower from its completed double top pattern but Crude Oil is holding on to some bullish potential.
Asia Strategy Focus: Asia FX: we are outright bullish
We have become even more positive on Asian currencies. We are outright bullish for Q4 11 and Q1 12. I was in China and Indonesia recently. I will be in Korea next week. Our top currency picks are KRW, IDR and SGD. INR and CNH/CNY will under-perform. Note that our coverage of Asian currencies is […]
Technical Analysis: Technical Alert – Relief rally to take a pause, NOK/SEK liked lower
Well, the relief rally certainly continued higher, higher than what we had in mind. The only market responding in a different way was the Italian bond market…watch out if breaking above 5.99%.
FX WEEKLY STRATEGY: Euro Bears Forced into Hibernation
G10 Themes: Oil Implications for FX: – Fundamentals, technical picture, and Fed policy supportive for oil – The rebound in oil prices should support AUD, CAD, and NOK – Correlations between AUD, CAD, NOK and oil remain strong
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: Asia – 28 October 2011
Scale of Thursday’s EURUSD run up testament to the scale of the short EUR base Throughout the explosive run up in EURUSD from sub-1.38 on Wednesday afternoon in New York to above 1.4200 during Thursday’s New York morning/European afternoon session, it was hard to find anyone with anything constructive to say about the euro here… […]
JPM FX Techs: Sydney/Asia Open
At a glance: The risk-on trade accelerated yesterday with an extension of the bullish risk trade. In line with the global strength in equities and the S&P breaking through important resistance including the 1258/1274 levels, the USD broke down below a number of important support levels.