Monthly Archives: September 2011
Technical Analysis: Technical Alert: EUR, GBP & NOK under pressure
EURUSD & EURJPY look set to test the recent 1.3495 & 103.90 lows… GBPUSD has reached a target (1.5650), but there could be more supply hitting the market – if so 1.54/53 would be the next objective… EURSEK must break outside 9.1235\9.1950 for a fresh directional cue (but USDSEK could still test its recent +6.77 […]
Technical Analysis – FX Daily Majors
Today’s highlights: EUR/USD: Plunge through trend and chart support negates basing effort and leaves threat this week through the recent 1.3497 low to key 1.3428/10 area GBP/USD: Plunging through a support vacuum towards key retracement support at 1.5490 this week, with overshoot risk to 1.5345/5296
Russia: More signs of Q3 growth pick-up in August
The last set of August indicators published by Rosstat today provides more support to our expectation that Russia’s GDP growth will pick up after an uninspiring 3.4% y/y in Q2. Earlier signs of this came from improving IP performance (6.2% y/y versus 5.2% in July).
What matters today (Asia edition)
Developed macro 1. Risk aversion remains highly elevated, with little prospect of a drop any time soon as Italy’s downgrade adds to Europe’s woes 2. Greece to hold another conference call with the Troika today after a “constructive” discussion yesterday evening, but no official statement yet. 3. The German ZEW should fall, but perhaps not […]
European FX Daily – Risk appetite starts busy week on the backfoot
– AUD and SGD lead selloff vs USD, Asian equities down 0.3-2.0% – FOMC likely to embark on operation twist – Euro zone PMI likely to print sub-50, leaving the euro vulnerable
ECB poised to act to reassure markets
Eurozone bank sector tensions are being watched closely by the European Central Bank, which has a range of policy weapons it could deploy swiftly to reassure nervous financial markets.
New week, same story as policy-makers leave markets without leadership
Europe’s Finance Ministers appear to have achieved no more than the G7 leaders did a week earlier. E-bonds will continue to be pushed by some, wanted by others, resited by Germany. Suggestions to allow leveraging the EFSF to give it ore power have also been rebuffed.
Technical Analysis – FX Daily Majors
Today’s highlights: EUR/USD: Faltering back from 1.3900/38 resistance to damage small basing effort. Risk back through 1.3497 low to key 1.3428/10 area early this week GBP/USD: New correction low aiming at key retracement support at 1.5490 into month-end, with overshoot risk to 1.5345/5296
Technical Analysis: Technical Alert
Reversing the reversals….so post weekend and risk off is back on the agenda. Stronger dollar, weaker euro and wobbly equities will be the main theme. EURUSD gapping (a rather rare occasion) down from its bear flag supports our view of a soon 1.31/33 visit. ECB EUR index looks set to soon test 100.
Key Currency Views: September 2011
Currency themes Theme #1. “Twist and Shout”. The Fed is expected to announce operation twist on Sept 21, likely followed before Thanksgiving by a loud “shout” (communicating their commitment to ultra-low rates beyond 2013). QE3 will be on the table if, as we expect, there is no inflection in the US data by Q1 of […]
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: Asia – 19 September 2011
Mildly risk-positive Friday, but NZD, CAD and AUD lead the way, not EUR The dip in EURUSD in Friday’s Asia session, from 1.39+ on Thursday to sub-1.38 triggered our Long EURUSD trade recommendation, the pair subsequently oscillating quite narrowly around that level though the remainder of Friday.
Greece news headlines
********** Greece ********** Greece’s Prime Minister Cancels US Trip, Says Second Rescue Package Is At Stake. Papandreou, who had left for London en route to New York, then returned to Greece on Saturday night. Venizelos Says Greece Needs to Show Determination to Partners. SAYS PRIMARY SURPLUS WILL SHIELD COUNTRY, MUST PRODUCE PRIMARY SURPLUS AS SOON […]