Monthly Archives: September 2011
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: US – 20 Sept 2011
USD retraces lower and equities recover in Europe, but sentiment still fluid: The dollar softened in the European session with the move being linked to selling by Asian accounts. Equities have rallied however sentiment remains fluid. Further negative headlines surrounding the European banking sector could see liquidity tensions exacerbate.
CEE Quarterly: Risk awareness
Macro outlook: The past quarter has taught us the perils of post crisis consolidation against a backdrop of elevated debt levels. Aftershocks are unavoidable. In line with a reduction in our growth outlook for the US and EMU, we are marking down our growth forecasts for CEE for this year and next.
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: Europe – 20 September 2011
S&P pull the rug from positive signals from Greece/troika phone conference: Headlines out of Greece following Monday’s phone conference with troika officials, suggesting that the two sides were close to an agreement that would unlock the next tranche of assistance from the EU/IMF, brought EURUSD back up through 1.3700 from an intra-day low of 1.3586.
TRY watchers
The Turkish central will announce its monetary policy decision at 12:00 GMT. The consensus is for no change in rates. After the strong GDP, the better-than-expected IP and the higher-than-expected inflation, there are good reasons for the CBRT to stay put, particularly after the 50bp cut in August.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Traders see no reason to buy the euro
EUR/USD (1.3605) Although there was widespread market concern about the outcome of the current deliberations between the Greek government and the IMF/EU/ECB, there wasn’t much in the way of news. Consequently the euro settled unchanged on the day.
UBS – Morning Adviser Europe – S&P Downgrades Italy
Italy Downgraded By S&P S&P downgraded Italy by one notch overnight, from A+ to A on its long-term debt, outlook negative. The ratings agency noted it reduced Italy on expectations of weak growth and also cited the country’s fragile politics as a hindrance to its ability to reduce debt. The outlook on debt remains negative.
UniCredit EEMEA Daily
News HR: Negative – HNB purchased EUR 180.5mn at 7.50 removing HRK1.35bn in liquidity from the market yesterday (p2) PL: Mixed – August Industrial production accelerates to 8.1% yoy vs. 2.7%yoy consensus while inflationary pressures in the industrial sector increased, August PPI inflation rose to 6.6% (p2) RO: Neutral – MinFin sold RON 0.66bn 9M […]
FX Ringside: USD skew indicates stronger dollar
Norway: Rate cut hopes farfetched Norges Bank will leave rates on hold at 2.25% this week adding a more dovish tone compared with its surprisingly hawkish previous message. We believe the market is simply incorrect to discount a 30% probability of a rate cut.
STICK OR TWIST? – WILL BEN GO FOR ‘OP TWIST’??
Our US Econ, Kevin Logan, expects the Fed to announce another unconventional policy move in its attempts to try and boost investor confidence. (Note that whilst the Fed meeting will start today, the decision or statement will not be released until tomorrow).
Australia: RBA board minutes – ‘Market pricing might not be giving an accurate reading of expectations’
The Reserve Bank of Australia(RBA) decided to leave the cash rate at 4.75% following the September board meeting. International Financial Markets:”Members began their discussion by observing the extreme volatility in financial markets over the past month, which reflected fears about a slowdown in the global economy and escalation of sovereign debt tensions in the United […]
S&P cuts Italy ratings one notch, outlook -ve
06:20 20Sep11 RTRS-S&P LOWERS UNSOLICITED RTGS ON ITALY; OUTLOOK NEG 06:21 20Sep11 RTRS-RPT- S&P LOWERS UNSOLICITED RTGS ON ITALY; OUTLOOK NEG 06:22 20Sep11 RTRS-S&P LOWERED ITS UNSOLICITED LONG- AND SHORT-TERM SOVEREIGN CREDIT RATINGS ON THE REPUBLIC OF ITALY TO ‘A/A-1’ FROM ‘A+/A-1+’. THE OUTLOOK IS NEGATIVE
A case for BOJ Intervention before month end – Have to think
A case for BOJ Intervention before month end – Have to think with talk of Japan lifer talk today 1) bid in EURJPY at 103.50 and 2) bid in AUDJPY at 77.50 and 3) covering longer dated options at expensive vol – these guys think there will be intervention before month end.