Monthly Archives: September 2011
FX Techs: London Open
At a glance: Getting ready for a final sell-off The action on the risk side is still dominating market trends across asset classes and with neckline support being broken in the FTSE 100, the S & P 500 and the DJI, chances of re-testing and exceeding the August lows are very high now. Given the […]
AUD, NZD and RBNZ forecast change: The storm before the calm
The AUD and NZD have lost significant ground in recent days as global macro conditions have deteriorated further. As discussed in detail in the FX Quarterly, we expect a deterioration of the European crisis to extend the short-term underperformance of cyclical assets globally, as well as strengthen the USD because of its safe-haven status.
Technical Analysis: Technical Alert
Impulsive moves in most asset classes but also a slowdown late in the session, reducing risk ahead of the G20? EURUSD almost made it into the 1.3150/3350 support zone, small bounce looks like short covering so expect a more thorough test early next week. AUD took a real hit and has already arrived at next […]
HSBC: Currencies: Technical Analysis: Could Greek stocks be turning bullish?
We often say that as technical analysts, “ours is not to reason why, ours is just to sell or buy”. But Greek stocks could be turning bullish. Cycle evidence suggests that the Athens stock market is close to a significant low and that the underperformance versus Germany is about to reverse.
Daily FX Technical Strategy – Commodity currencies, the last shoe to drop?
The FOMC meeting yesterday spurred another wave of risk reduction, even in EM where we had expected the process to slow. USD strength, though, is finally undermining commodity prices, as growth fears take over from inflation, and commodity currencies are finally coming under selling pressure.
Technical Analysis – FX Daily Majors
Today’s highlights: GBP/USD: Plunge to our initial September target at key retracement support at 1.5490 now places overshoot risk to 1.5345/5296, which we would look to hold EUR/USD: Bearish “outside” pattern aims down through 1.3497 to key 1.3428/10 area into week end; risk to our quarter-end target at 1.3050 increasing
Global FX Special: No ‘twist’ for FX
No ‘twist’ for FX We maintain a defensive stance in FX amidst few surprises from the Fed The FOMC announces much anticipated ‘twist’ operation to extend the average maturity of its balance sheet. Overall the Fed’s dovish stance reaffirms a weak growth outlook and keeps us defensive on global currencies. Our preferred trades include: CAD, […]
UniCredit EEMEA Daily
News CZ: Positive – MinFin sold CZK 8.2bn CZGB 2.75/14: yield 1.65%, bid/cover 2.34 (p2) KZ: Neutral – Minfin placed KZT 10bn (EUR 50mn) in 13Z t-bonds: yield 5.0% (p2)
O/n Asia Wrap, Orderbook & Flow, $Asia & FOMC Recap
1) Overnight Asia Wrap Risk off and USD buying continue… The day starts very choppy with currencies bouncing off their lows (AUD 1.0040s to 1.0079). NZD GDP +0.1% q/q much lower then the +0.5% expectation, and kiwi gets slammed from .8060 to .8010.
Technical Analysis: Technical Alert
Risk aversion still ruling. Most market has just left, are leaving or just about to leave fourth wave consolidations (often in the shape of triangles) calling for one more cycle low/high in most asset classes before its correction time.
What matters today (Asia edition)
Developed macro 1. Markets disappointed by Operation Twist and downbeat Fed outlook. Risk assets set to remain under strong pressure 2. Eurozone ‘flash’ PMI indices to fall further while remaining consistent with subdued, albeit positive GDP growth. 3. FOMC to shift $400 billion in Twist operation to put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates and […]
G10 Forecast changes
Given the important developments in the global economy over the past month, we have changed a number of our forecasts. These are published on Barclays Capital Live as they were needed for the EM quarterly. We will discuss them in greater detail in our G10 quarterly (published Thursday).