Monthly Archives: September 2011
FX Techtonics Daily – EUR/USD: corrective rise from 1.3360 probably not over
EUR/USD EUR/USD should break above yesterday’s high of 1.3670 and rise to the 1.3795/1.3800 resistance area before pointing back to the January low of 1.2860.
Daily FX Technical Strategy – Markets take a breather
Following the large moves last week, it is perhaps not surprising that so far this week the technical evidence points to a period of consolidation and correction, which would allow momentum and sentiment to normalise from recent extreme readings.
UniCredit EEMEA Daily
News BG: Neutral – GED down 0.4% mom in July, MinFin sells EUR 35mn of 5Y bonds (p2) KZ: Mixed – M3 shrinks 2.3% mom in August (-2.1% momsa) (p2)
Technical Analysis: Technical Alert: Is “risk-on” off again?
In several markets we think we see tentative signs that the correction (risk-on) is fading already, though this has yet to be confirmed to fully realign price action with underlying “risk-off” trends. EURUSD under 1.3481, GBPUSD below 1.5432 & EURJPY under 102.86 would be the confirmations we are looking for in majors…
Emerging Markets Cross Assets: Shooting at moving targets
With recent volatility recalling memories of autumn 2008, the way forward is very unlikely to be either straightforward or smooth. However, while the present investment environment is difficult it offers potentially large gains.
Global Technical Watch – Quick Charts (Sep 28)
On the heels of the reversal signals highlighted yesterday, markets continue to stabilise and take a breather. The pattern in the DAX is encouraging, as it is broadly holding up above lows of a Bullish Reversal week from mid-September and is also threatening to complete a basing pattern.
UniCredit EEMEA Daily – take profit on half of our RUB payer
News RO: Neg – MinFin rejects all bids at a RON400mn auction of 6M T-Bills (p2) RU: Negative – FinMin Kudrin resigns amid clash with Medvedev (p1) TK: Positive – September real sector confidence index records a strong 2.4% mom increase (p2)
EEMEA morning thoughts, 27 September 2011
Russia’s political reshuffling: Finance Minister Kudrin dismissed. The situation with Finance Minister Kudrin expressing intention to leave his position after the March 2012 presidential elections under a (future) PM Medvedev has developed quickly. Yesterday President Medvedev demanded that Mr Kudrin resigns or reconsiders his position.
HSBC FI – EFSF discussion continues, Italian
ECB comments on increasing size of EFSF A range of numbers have been mentioned on the newswires, with some suggesting an increase to EUR2-3tn but without details of what this involves it is difficult to forecast the impact. It is not clear how the EFSF would be leveraged and, furthermore, whether the figures reflect the […]
European FX Daily – Risk sentiment stabilised on more constructive news from Europe
– Asian FX and equities rally, AUD outperforming amongst G10 – Slovenia likely to ratify EFSF amendments – US Consumer confidence and Richmond Fed in focus
Technical Analysis: Technical Alert: Correctional themes dominate
It seems like the market is consolidating or at best correcting some recent risk-off trades, but it’s way too early to call for more lasting lows/highs in place… EURUSD over 1.3585 could call for levels as high as 1.3800… EURJPY over 103.80\95 would trigger more buy-stops and the correctinal advance in GBPUSD is still on […]
HSBC: Currencies: Currency Weekly: USD – the only port in this storm
Last week’s gloomy outlook for global growth has caused an exodus from risk assets such as equities and commodities. The main beneficiary of this repositioning has been the USD. This flight to the USD has taken place despite the fact that there has been no improvement in the structural position in the US.